NHL Betting Guide for Thursday, November 11


November 11, 2021

A salute to those serving, those who have served, and those who have made the ultimate sacrifice on Veterans and Remembrance Day.

After having only three games on the Wednesday night docket, we’re rewarded with a hefty 11-game slate on Thursday. The games are spread out across all time zones, although there is an emphasis on East Coast matchups, with six pucks dropping during the 7 pm ET hour. We’ve only seen four overs across the past 13 games, and it’s a trend worth monitoring as we head into the weekend.

Here’s a breakdown of a few of our favorite wagers from FanDuel Sportsbook!

The Pittsburgh Penguins continue to sort through their COVID-19 issues, but that hasn’t impacted their on-ice product. The Pens remain one of the strongest teams in the NHL, and they should continue that dominance against the Florida Panthers on Thursday.

Pittsburgh has posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% at five-on-five in nine of their 11 games, and they have yet to post a game score below 48.2%. In total, they have the second-best rating in the league this season, but they don’t have the results to back it up. The Penguins have the 22nd-ranked points percentage in the league and only four wins through their first 12 games, albeit four of their losses have come in overtime or a shootout.

Opposite of the Pens, the Panthers’ underlying metrics don’t support that they should be as successful as they have been. Florida has outplayed just six of their 13 opponents at five-on-five but has collected 10 wins this season. The Panthers have the eighth-ranked shooting percentage and 12th-ranked save percentage at five-on-five, resulting in the ninth-ranked PDO. Their save and shooting percentages jump to second and eighth across all strengths, firmly planting the Panthers on the unsustainable side of the spectrum.

The Panthers could be starting to break, as they have allowed four or more goals at five-on-five in two of their past four games and four or more goals in three of their past four. It’s also worth noting that this will be Florida’s third road game in four nights.

The Penguins deserve more wins than they have this season, and the Panthers have started their regression towards the mean. We’re backing the Pens as plus-money underdogs on home ice.

The Picks: Penguins +105

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid
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Thumbnail photo via Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

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