Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat Game Preview: Jump on the Pacers on the road
The teams have split the previous two meetings this season, the latest being a 113-104 victory for the Heat back on December 3rd. Since that contest, the Pacers are 4-2, with two of those losses coming against the Golden State Warriors and the Milwaukee Bucks. Meanwhile, Miami has since gone 4-4 as it continues to navigate through a litany of injury/COVID-related issues.
Indiana is coming off a 122-113 win over the lowly Detroit Pistons last Thursday. Rick Carlisle’s squad should be well-rested, as this will be his clubs’ first game in five days.
Despite their 13-18 mark, the Pacers feel like a better team than their record. Following a surprising 1-6 start, Indiana has played over .500 basketball (12-11) while ranking above league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
The injury/COVID riddled Heat fell to the Pistons Sunday and will once again be shorthanded tonight. Miami will continue to be without its two all-stars in Bam Adebayo (thumb) and Jimmy Butler (back), as well as Caleb Martin (protocols), Markieff Morris (neck), and now P.J. Tucker. He left Sunday’s game with a knee injury. Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner Tyler Herro, who’s missed the past three games with a quad issue, is listed as questionable.
While Miami’s defense has surprisingly held firm in the wake of all the absences (103.7 PPG), its offense has struggled. Since their victory over Indiana, Erik Spoelstra’s group has averaged 104.0 PPG – nearly three points fewer than their season average. They will need to keep up with Malcolm Brogdon and company, who are averaging 110.8 PPG over the past six games.
Given Indiana’s fresh legs and the Heat’s injury/COVID woes, the Pacers (-2) feel like the play tonight. While Indiana has yet to cash in as road favorites, that shouldn’t scare you off. Our model’s expected margin of +5.6 and -216 fair Moneyline make the Pacers a much safer bet than the current odds suggest. We love Indiana tonight against the spread and on an outright basis.
As for the game’s total of 210.5, our model leans towards the over with a projection of 224.3.
All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
