There are some noteworthy discrepancies between the percentage of bets and dollars wagered heading into Week 17, highlighting the difference between sharp and square action. The betting public is on a pair of teams they typically follow, while a low-ranking team is drawing action after a blowout win last week. Similarly, there’s a large percentage of wagers coming on a pair of unders for Sunday’s slate, with most of the money betting that both games go over the total.
Here’s our rundown of sharp vs. square action on a few notable lines.
Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans
Spread: Dolphins +3.5
Action: 37% of bets, 98% of dollars wagered
It should come as no surprise that the Tennessee Titans are drawing public action ahead of their Week 17 encounter with the Miami Dolphins. What should surprise bettors is the amount of dollars wagered on the other side, creating a massive difference between number of bets and dollars wagered.
Miami is drawing just 37% of bets, leaving 63% of wagers coming in on Tennessee’s side; however, 98% of actual dollars wagered have been on the Fins. Tennessee has negative net yards per play but has overachieved relative to their metrics to this point. As the betting market implies, the Titans are due for a correction, which should come against the Dolphins.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals +5.5
Action: 47% of bets, 74% of dollars wagered
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are turning heads this season, making a run to the top of the AFC North. They’ll face their stiffest test of the season this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, but the betting market likes their chances to keep things within five points.
As usual, the Chiefs are drawing the lion’s share of the betting action with 53% of wagers. The bulk of the money is coming in, supporting the home underdog Bengals, winners of four of their past six, including two straight. This betting pattern should hold steady ahead of this AFC matchup.
Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers
Spread: Texans +12.5
Action: 84% of bets, 6% of dollars wagered
There’s nothing like a two-game winning streak to make bettors forget how terrible a team truly is. The Houston Texans are coming off a massive 41-29 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, and the public likes their chances to cover against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Sharp bettors see things otherwise, recognizing their Week 17 matchup as nothing more than an opportunity for the Texans to fall flat on their faces.
Houston is drawing 84% of bets but only 6% of dollars wagered. The Texans give up the fourth-most yards per play this season, garnering the fewest yards per play offensively. That imbalance implies that the Texans have been much more successful than they should be, and it’s unlikely they catch lightning in a bottle two weeks in a row.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Jets
Total: Over 45.5
Action: 30% of bets, 72% of dollars wagered
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off consecutive above-average defensive performances, which could be swaying public bettors towards the under; however, sharp money could drag this total back up ahead of kick-off.
For a team that is 4-11, the New York Jets offense isn’t as bad as one would expect. The Jets average a respectable 5.1 yards per play and 318.7 yards per game, ranking 20th and 21st in the league, respectively. They can tap into that against the Bucs, who allow 330.0 yards as the visitors this season. 72% of money wagered supports that this game should go over the total, trumping the 30% of bets that have been made.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts
Total: Over 44.5
Action: 43% of bets, 63% of dollars wagered
There is a sharp versus square angle to consider ahead of this crucial AFC matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Indianapolis Colts. The majority of bets are coming in on the under, but sharp money likes the over.
The Colts have put forth some strong defensive outings over their recent sample, but there’s a growing disconnect between the yards they are allowing and the points they are putting up. The Raiders are also underachieving relative to their yardage, scoring 33 points over the past two weeks while gaining nearly 700 yards. This total opened at 49, highlighting sportsbooks’ confidence in a high-scoring game, and will likely ratchet up a point or two ahead of kick-off.
All NFL game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid
