NFL Week 18 Sharps vs. Squares Report: Rams Becoming a Big Money Target over 49ers

The stakes haven’t been higher for several teams as they cling to their playoff aspirations. We rarely see this number of meaningful games, but nearly every matchup will impact a team’s playoff chances or seeding within the playoffs. Rather than getting teams running out backups to end the season, most squads will be deploying their regulars in a bid to improve their position in the standings. That’s resulted in a few discrepancies in the Week 18 betting lines between sharp and square bettors.

Here’s our rundown of sharp vs. square action on a few notable lines.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Saints -3.5
Action: 39% of bets, 73% of dollars wagered

The New Orleans Saints face a must-win situation against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 18, but a victory doesn’t guarantee them a spot in the playoffs. They also need help from the Los Angeles Rams to knock off the San Francisco 49ers to assure New Orleans a place in the postseason. The betting public is in on the Falcons, but sharp money is on the Saints.

The Saints’ defense has been outstanding to end the season, holding three of their past four opponents to 10 or fewer points and helping the Saints cover all three games. The same can’t be said for the Falcons, who have covered the spread just once over their past five weeks, going 1-3-1. This game means a lot more to the Saints than the Falcons, and sharp money is on the favorites.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -4
Action: 39% of bets, 84% of dollars wagered

The aforementioned NFC West contest between the 49ers and Rams is another prime example of the sharp versus square dichotomy. Matthew Stafford and the Rams have looked unimpressive over the last couple of outings, but that’s not keeping sharp money from driving up the price on the home team.

The first seed in the NFC is out of the question for the Rams; however, they have not yet guaranteed themselves the second seed. The only way to ensure that distinction is to win against their division rivals. Last week’s debacle notwithstanding, the Rams have been good against the spread, covering the number in four of their previous five. This season, the Niners have been less effective at covering their divisional matchups, going just 1-4 against NFC West opponents. We should expect that to continue against the Rams if we’re following sharp money.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Spread: Packers -3.5
Action: 59% of bets, 15% of dollars wagered

On any given Sunday, the betting public loves Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. And although Rodgers has no intention of sitting out the Packers’ regular season finale against the Detroit Lions, there’s also no guarantee that he finishes the game.

Week 18 is nothing more than a formality for the Packers. They have already assured themselves top spot in the NFC and a first round bye. Historically, under these circumstances, starters would be afforded most of the game off to rest up for their playoff run. There’s been no indication from the Packers about player usage, but sharp bettors are getting on the underdog Lions in anticipation of starters getting limited or no reps. We also can’t dismiss the Lions’ ability to keep things close, as they are 6-2 against the spread over the past eight weeks.

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

Total: Over 43.5
Action: 53% of bets, 45% of dollars wagered

There is a bit of resistance in the total between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. Most bets are coming on the over, while more money is taking the under.

This total has moved down off opening, currently sitting at 43.5. That could reflect the Bears’ recent defensive dominance, as Chicago has limited their past three opponents to an average of 14.7 points per game. A low-scoring game is contraindicated in Minnesota’s recent outcomes, as the Vikings’ lone under from their previous seven contests was a 17-9 defeat of the Bears in Week 15. Sharp bettors like another low-scoring game, with 55% of the money coming in on the under.

All NFL game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid