NHL Betting Guide for Wednesday, January 5: No McDavid Means Cash in with the Maple Leafs

It’s a quiet night in the Chell, with just a pair of games on the go. There were some high-scoring shenanigans last night, with five of the eight games seeing seven or more goals. Favorites were even more profitable, with seven of eight betting chalk claiming victory. We’re betting that favorite trend continues on Wednesday night.

These are the wagers we’re looking at from FanDuel Sportsbook.

We are highlighting the St. Louis Blues as regression candidates over their coming games, starting tonight against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Blues have been overachieving relative to their metrics, resulting in an unsustainable balance between performances and wins. The opposite is true for the Penguins, who are starting to get their metrics working in their favor.

Pittsburgh has outplayed nine of their past 12 opponents, usually by a substantive margin. The Pens have posted a cumulative expected goals-for rating of 55.7% over that span, going north of 60.0% in six of 12 games. Sidney Crosby and company have struck a sustainable balance, winning nine of those 12 games, with a modestly inflated 1.012 PDO. We’re expecting sustained success from the Penguins over their coming games.

The same can’t be said about the Blues, who have been on a tremendous 8-2-2 run, despite getting outplayed in eight of those games. That has resulted in an inflated 1.047 PDO, with the Blues’ season-long shooting and save percentages both climbing into the top seven in the league. St. Louis can’t maintain this balance and should start to regress towards averages over their coming stretch.

The betting price on the Penguins doesn’t accurately reflect their chances tonight. On that basis, we’re backing Pittsburgh to come out on top in tonight’s inter-conference battle.

The Picks: Penguins -137

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.