Golf handicapper James Mazzola loves Marc Leishman at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
I’ve known Mazzola for a few years and he’s one of the sharpest cats around when it comes to breaking down the golf market on a week-to-week basis. Mazzola combines his analytical modeling with a general feel for “horse and course” to land on a few golfers that are worth wagering on.
When I asked who he’s betting this weekend, he was too quick to utter Leishman’s name.
“Marc Leishman’s record at Bay Hill is insane,” the Fore! Profit host told NESN. “I’m not a huge course history guy, but everything suggests that you need some previous history and he has a win here. His form is insane right now. He’s gaining strokes across the board. COVID-19 really messed up the routines for a lot of the Australian golfers. Those guys are starting to get back in the flow of things.
“Leishman is in good form and he’s at a good track that fits his game well.”
The 38-year-old Leishman won this event in 2017 and he’s finished Top 20 four times in five outings.
Odds to win Arnold Palmer Invitational at BetMGM:
Jon Rahm +800 ($100 wins $800)
Rory McIlory +1200
Scottie Scheffler +1600
Viktor Hovland +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
Sungjae Im +2500
Will Zalatoris +2500
Adam Scott +3300
Marc Leishman +3300
Tyrrell Hatton +3300
Billy Horschel +4000
Jason Kokrak +4000
Keith Mitchell +4000
Paul Casey +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Max Homa +4000 ($100 wins $4,000)
“You better have every aspect of your game going at Bay Hill,” Mazzola analyzed. “It starts off the tee. This is a Florida course with a lot of high rough and it sounds like the rough is higher than normal. You could see 5- to 10-under winning this weekend. If you’re hitting it crooked, you have absolutely no chance to be successful, which is probably why Jordan Spieth isn’t here. These greens are so difficult and you have to be in the fairway to be able to spin the ball to hold them.”
Matt Fitzpatrick is another guy Mazzola thinks can make some noise.
“He didn’t pop on my model because he hasn’t been playing much in the states,” Mazzola explained. “But Fitzpatrick is really interesting. He has seven European Tour wins and his stats were being drug down because of his super-long current form. However, he was sixth at Pebble, tenth at the Phoenix Open and he’s gaining strokes. I found a 30/1 number and dove right in.”
After hitting on Keith Mitchell to finish Top 10 last weekend, I’m rolling that over and keying him again this weekend. He’s made the cut in five of six tourneys and has been a menace on the greens. And what’s not to like about that 45-1 price at DraftKings?
“I have absolutely no problem with it whatsoever,” Mazzola said. “If you have a guy who comes into form and you like him one week, you can run it back the following weekend. Mitchell didn’t show anything at the Honda that isn’t duplicatable. He’s getting strokes off the tee and he’s putting really well. And he’s a better Bermuda putter than anything else.”
I’m tailing Mazzola on Leishman and running it back on Mitchell at the Arnold Palmer.
Marc Leishman +300 to finish Top 10
Marc Leishman +3300 to win outright
Keith Mitchell +375 to finish Top 10
Keith Mitchell +4500 to win outright
RECORD: (96-92, +10.9)
