After a wire-to-wire win at the Genesis Invitational last weekend, 23-year-old Joaquin Niemann has naturally risen up the betting boards at this week’s Honda Classic.
One bettor at DraftKings placed a $35,000 live bet on Niemann last Thursday afternoon at 28-1 odds. So when Niemann outlasted Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young down the stretch, the aforementioned bettor brought home a cool $980,000 payout.
Niemann is third on the sheet at most American sportsbooks to win at PGA National.
“In the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Niemann routinely lost strokes around the green and he ranked in the mid-100s in that category on the tour,” Circa Sports assistant sportsbook manager Jeff Davis told NESN. “But in 28 rounds so far this season, he’s gaining more than a half shot per round around the green. That currently puts him at seventh-best on tour.”
Consensus odds to win Honda Classic:
Sungjae Im +1200 ($100 wins $1,200)
Daniel Berger +1550
Joaquin Niemann +1800
Louis Oosthuizen +1900
Brooks Koepka +2000
Billy Horschel +2000
Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Shane Lowry +2800
Keith Mitchell +3300
Alex Noren +3300
Brian Harman +4000
Matthew Wolff +4000
Mito Pereira +4400
Matt Jones +4600
Cameron Young +4800 ($100 wins $4,800)
Even off a victory, Niemann is nowhere near as popular as Brooks Koepka at the Honda Classic.
“Koepka is far and away the most popular with the betting public,” Davis reported. “He has 50% more tickets than the second-most popular golfer, Christiaan Bezuidenhout.”
You can find Koepka as low as +1800 at BetMGM and DraftKings and as high as +2200 at PointsBet.
“In terms of movement, no one has really been crushed since we opened up the betting,” Davis said. “We’re shorter than the market on Keith Mitchell (+2900 at Circa) and longer on guys like Tommy Fleetwood (+2900 at Circa) and Shane Lowry (+3600 at Circa). And we’re always ready to take a bet.”
I tend to agree with Davis on Keith Mitchell, who you can find at +700 to finish Top 5, +350 to finish Top 10, +165 to finish Top 20 and 16-1 to be the highest-placing American golfer.
He has shown great form lately — four made cuts in five starts — and he won this event in 2019.
Let’s key in Mitchell (+3500 at DraftKings) at the Honda Classic.
Keith Mitchell +350 to finish Top 10
Keith Mitchell +3500 to win outright
RECORD: (95-91, +8.4)
