Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Calgary Flames Betting Guide: Bolts Spiraling Towards Regression

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Calgary Flames Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Lightning -114 | Flames -105

Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+225) | Flames +1.5 (-290)

Total: 6 Over -112 | Under -108

All NHL betting lines and odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Calgary Flames News, Analysis, and Picks

Thursday night’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Calgary Flames is a rematch of the 2004 Stanley Cup Final and could be a preview of the playoff finale this season. Both teams come into this contest off a loss; however, the Flames have been playing a sustainable brand of hockey this season. Conversely, the Bolts have hit a speed bump over their current schedule, implying that they are regression candidates over their coming games.

The Bolts are 6-2-0 over their past eight outings, a span in which they’ve outplayed their opponents at five-on-five in just four games. Tampa Bay has seen a decrease in their offensive metrics over that span, failing to surpass nine high-danger and 26 scoring chances in all but one of those matchups. On average, the Lightning are attempting 7.9 quality chances and 21.1 scoring opportunities per game over that stretch.

Counterintuitively, Tampa’s scoring has increased, with the Lightning scoring three or more goals in seven of eight while averaging 4.1 goals per game. The Lightning have struck an unsustainable balance between production and output, putting them on the edge of regression.

Calgary has been one of the top analytics teams in the NHL this season. The Flames have the best expected goals-for rating at five-on-five and continue to put forth consistent efforts. Calgary has outplayed nine of their past 12 opponents, posting a cumulative 56.1% rating over that sample, which is right on pace with their 55.5 season-long percentage. Defensive zone coverage remains at the forefront of their system, with only two of those 12 opponents attempting more than nine high-danger chances.

The Flames are rested at home, continuing to deliver solid performances on a nightly basis. Opposite of them, the Lightning have been inconsistent over their recent stretch and are overachieving relative to their underlying metrics. We’re not passing up nearly even money on the visitors in this one: Calgary moneyline is the play.

The Picks: Flames +102

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.