The USGA likes to say the U.S. Open offers a stiff test of championship golf that ultimately determines the best player on the course.
Looking at a list of recent winners, that certainly seems to be the case. It’s a who’s who over the last decade or so dating back to Rory McIlroy’s win in 2011 right up through Jon Rahm’s win last year.
All the winners in between largely have been name-brand competitors. That’s not to say long shots don’t hit from time to time. Gary Woodland was anywhere from 80- to 100-1 when he won in 2019, Martin Kaymer went off around 40-1 in 2014, and Webb Simpson was more than a 50-1 long shot to win in 2012.
So, as we prep for the U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass., site of one of the biggest long shot wins in sports history, here are a few players who could defy the odds as relative long shot champions.
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Billy Horschel (+5000): The group between 50- and 65-1 is truly loaded, and if it’s not someone at the top, don’t be surprised if one of these mid-range long shots cements their career with a major win. We’re rolling with Horschel whom the model loves this week. He ranks top 30 in the last 24 rounds off the tee, on approach, around the green (10th), short putting (ninth), bogey avoidance, fairways gained and short game. He’s also in great form, winning at the Memorial two weeks ago.
Cameron Young (+6500): He’s going to be a popular bet and DFS play this week for good reason. Young flushes it both off the tee and on approach, and he’s not intimidated by the big boys, either, as evidenced by hanging around into late Sunday at the PGA Championship. His short game is impeccable, and if he can avoid the three-putts — his short-putting stats are rather unsightly — he’ll hang around.
Tommy Fleetwood (+6500): Fleetwood quietly has found something in his game after spending a while in the wilderness. He has two top-10 finishes in his last four starts, and five top-20s in his last eight, including a fifth-place showing at Southern Hills. His approach game is dialed in, and the driver was really good from Valspar until the Schwab where he had a slight hiccup. The Fried Egg’s Andy Johnson heard from a player who said TCC and Shinnecock Hills are two of the hardest courses he’s ever played, and there are definitely similarities between the two. That bodes well for Fleetwood, who finished second at the U.S. Open there in 2018.
Davis Riley (+8000): Riley figured out something with his swing recently. He’s gaining more than six strokes on the field tee to green in his last five starts and four on approach. In his last five starts, he’s finished fifth, ninth, 13th (PGA), fourth and 13th. On small greens, you figure you’re going to be left with a lot of short putts, which he’s rolling in right now. He missed the cut in two of three U.S. Open starts, so far, but if he can ride the momentum, it might be worth a gamble.
Tom Hoge (+15000): You’re going to hear a lot about the size of the green complexes at The Country Club this week. They are tiny. The only smaller greens on Tour and/or in major championships are at Pebble Beach. The winner at the 2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier this year? That would be Hoge. It’s not really a fluke, either. Hoge got on a bit of a roll with that win, culminating with a ninth-place finish at the PGA Championship. He did miss two straight cuts after that, but he has the game to contend here, as someone who is straight off the tee, good on approach and solid around the green. Worth a top-10 play, too, as is just about everyone on this list.
