We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
Team stacks seeing the most leverage: Brewers, Yankees
The Milwaukee Brewers’ team stack looks to be the one that will see the most leverage as they’ll go up against the Tampa Bay Rays in a game that will likely feature the bullpen. Jimmy Yacabonis will technically get the nod, but expecting anything more than two innings from him would be a stretch. As a collective unit, the Rays have the fourth-best team ERA in baseball this season but have regressed lately, sitting 15th in team ERA over the past month. However, no team in baseball executes the bullpen better than the Rays.
The Brew Crew has been swinging the bat exceptionally well over the past two weeks as they are in the top two in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ during that stretch. They have lost some games over the past few days that they would like to have back, but the power remains as they have still had the third highest ISO in baseball over the past week. This stack will be pretty expensive at a nearly $5,000 average price, but the sub-1% ownership will be extremely valuable. If you aren’t confident in the Rays’ bullpen, grabbing this stack despite the high price can still be a valuable asset on this slate.
The New York Yankees find themselves in a desirable leverage position, coming into tonight’s game against Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners. After losing five straight games, they went into the series last night and had a strong response with nine runs hung on the Mariners. Can they carry that momentum over into tonight? We know how strong the offensive metrics have been for the Yankees, including over their losing streak this week, so anytime we see minimal ownership on this stack, it certainly requires a second look.
Luis Castillo is capable of being an excellent pitcher in this league and has flashed that potential at times, but the ownership we see on the Yankees’ stack makes it seem like Jacob deGrom is taking the mound. Castillo doesn’t come close to deGrom, which he made evident in his first start as a Mariner, which happened to be against the Yankees, where he allowed three earned runs over six and two-thirds innings of work. Nothing spectacular from the Yankees in that matchup, but it is enough to justify that an offense this dominant should not be seeing minimal ownership against a pitcher of Castillo’s caliber, especially after dropping nine runs last night. This stack is priced reasonably, so this is a high-floor play.