MLB DFS: Framber Valdez, German Marquez Top Leverage Pitchers for Wednesday
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Pitchers seeing the most leverage: Framber Valdez, German Marquez
Framber Valdez takes the mound tonight against the Chicago White Sox as the top leverage arm on the slate. Valdez has been highly reliable for his club, given that he has had 15 straight starts where he has pitched a minimum of six innings. Reliability is half the battle; during that span, he has not allowed more than three runs in any outing. At the same time, he limits power exceptionally well as he has the third-lowest allowed HR/9 in baseball among all qualified pitchers. Getting around seven innings while only allowing a few runs at most puts Valdez in the ballpark of turning optimal in most starts, but a high strikeout upside isn’t present given his 22.1% strikeout rate for the season. Nonetheless, Valdez is as strong of a safety net pitcher that you will find in baseball.
The White Sox are in the middle of a five-game winning streak and are going for the sweep tonight. However, an offensive explosion has not been responsible, as they have only averaged 4.2 runs per game during that stretch. Plus, over the past two weeks, they have only been about league average in wOBA and wRC+ while having the fourth-worst ISO. By no means do the White Sox have an intimidating offense, and there is nothing to suggest that Valdez shouldn’t be able to extend his streak to 16 games of six-inning, three runs of less pitching. Valdez isn’t cheap, priced at $10,300 on DraftKings. Still, you are paying for reliability, so if you are uncomfortable backing some of the top pitchers on this slate in Max Scherzer, Carlos Rodon, or Tony Gonsolin, this is a high-floor play.
German Marquez finds himself near the top of the pitcher leverage board tonight ahead of his matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals. Marquez has struggled this season as his ERA is north of 5.00 without much dropoff to his xERA while striking out batters at only an 18.8% clip. Away from Coors Field, his ERA is only 4.07, but an ERA of 4.07 is nothing to get excited over. He has the fifth-highest allowed HR/9 rate in baseball, but his allowed HR/9 on the road is below 1.00, showing that he is getting crushed statistically playing half of his games in Coors.
Just as Marquez thinks he was getting a break playing on the road tonight, he runs into baseball’s best offense over the past two weeks. They have ranked first in wOBA and wRC+ while placing second in ISO with a strikeout rate of only 19%. Marquez and the Cardinals matched up in Coors Field last week, where Marquez was serviceable as he only allowed two runs over six innings. Marquez is priced dirt cheap at $6,700 while only seeing single-digit expected ownership, which would be desirable, but not against a red-hot offense. The salary and expected ownership are low enough, though, that if you want to throw a dart at the board, there is value to be had as long as Marquez pitches a comparable performance to his last start against the Cardinals.
