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Pitchers seeing the most leverage: Josiah Gray, Carlos Carrasco
Josiah Gray is near the top of the pitcher leverage board, up against the Chicago Cubs tonight. He faced the Cubs in his most recent start and allowed two earned runs over six and a third innings on the mound. Overall, Gray has had a pretty inconsistent season, flashing his one-time top prospect excellence and then tossing a dud in the next outing. He has had eight straight starts allowing at least two runs, but before that, he had four consecutive starts where he only gave up a run or less.
The Cubs have had a great past week offensively, ranking second in wOBA and wRC+ and fifth in ISO. They have limited their strikeouts more than they have all year, which limits the potential upside that Gray could have given his 26.3% strikeout rate. Gray is only priced at $7,900 on DraftKings, and we expect him only to see roughly 5% ownership. Gray can potentially turn valuable given his price and high ceiling, but his inconsistency makes it hard to pull the trigger. Despite the Cubs’ recent surge at the plate, they have been a poor offense all year and won’t keep up their current production for much longer. If you are looking for a very risky play tonight, banking Gray’s ceiling and the inevitable Cubs’ regression has the potential to turn optimal.
Carlos Carrasco has been a welcomed addition to the backend of the Mets’ rotation. His xERA and xFIP hover around 4.00, and he has decent strikeout production at nearly 24%. He has also done an excellent job of limiting power this season which makes us feel better about the lack of dominant strikeout production. Carrasco has faced the Braves twice, with one of the two outings being his best performance of the year, an eight-scoreless inning effort. The other outing was what we usually see when a pitcher faces the Braves, allowing three runs over six innings.
Atlanta features one of baseball’s best offenses and is looking to bounce back in this upcoming series against the Mets after last weekend. In August, they ranked in the top five in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out below a 20% clip. Carrasco is expected to see minimal ownership. Priced at $8,600, Carrasco is a little more expensive than what we’d be willing to pay for him. Although Carrasco has performed better than most against Atlanta, the Braves have been waiting for another shot against the Mets and will come into tonight looking to wreak havoc.