We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
MILWAUKEE IS FEELING THE COORS FIELD EFFECT
The Milwaukee Brewers’ team stack looks to be the top optimal stack of tonight’s slate as they look ahead to a great opportunity in Coors Field against Chad Kuhl and the Colorado Rockies. To put it plainly, Kuhl is not any good. His expected ERA and FIP hover around 5.00, while his strikeout rate is only 17.4% for the year. He struggles mightily with giving up power, so playing half of your games in the friendliest hitter ballpark does not help. He has let up a minimum of three earned runs in each of his last eight starts, which gives us a decent idea of a floor for this stack.
The Brewers seem unable to get over that hump as they are fighting to break into the last NL Wild Card spot. That is partly because they are only about league average in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past two weeks. Tonight will be the second time facing Kuhl this season, knocking in three earned runs the first time. The kicker, he threw 85 pitches in only two and a third! The Brewers gave him the fits, so there is optimism that there is some potential for more tonight. The optimism certainly looks well spread as we anticipate this stack to see roughly 30% ownership. Pricing-wise, this stack is reasonable, but how comfortable are you with riding the public? There is value in backing the Brewers, as long as you are OK with absurd ownership.
BRAVES LOOKING TO EXTEND WINNING STREAK TO SIX
The Atlanta Braves team stack is also in a strong spot near the top of the optimal board for tonight’s slate as they will go up against Cole Irvin and the Oakland Athletics. Irvin has been pretty inconsistent with over six starts in August. He allowed five runs in three of those and two or less in the other three. He doesn’t do anything too well, which should make sense given the state of the A’s with his 17.6% seasonal strikeout rate and mediocre allowed power metrics. We are most concerned with his 3.35 real ERA jumping to nearly 4.50 for his expected mark, signaling the potential for regression.
Atlanta features one of baseball’s best offenses as they have consistently performed at an elite level as a collective unit. They have ranked in the top three in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past two weeks with roughly a 50%/11% split in HardHit%/Barrel%, which is incredible. They have struck out at the third highest rate in baseball during that same stretch, but they have shown their high strikeout numbers have not impacted their production. This stack is expected to see about 8% ownership, nearly four times less than the Brewers stack. Both of our top stacks hold value, but backing the better offense at a fourth of the ownership is a better value play. We cannot control what potential mayhem may ensue with the Brewers at Coors, but the Braves are a safer option value-wise.
