Packers-Buccaneers: Spread, Moneyline, Total Game Picks

by

September 24

Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are set to face off for what could be the final regular season matchup of their illustrious NFL careers on Sunday afternoon.Green Bay Packers (-102) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-116) Total: 41.5 (O -115, U -105)

In a matchup that should boast the most eyeballs in Week 3, two legendary quarterbacks will collide in the twilight of their careers, and there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding both sides. The Packers and Bucs have concerns in their wide receiver room, which coincides with the low total set at 41.5. When offenses headlined by Rodgers and Brady don’t see a high total, you have to look into the reason, which is that both defenses have the chance to be elite. With Mike Evans serving a one-game suspension for Tampa Bay and injuries present, the Bucs are thin at wide receiver, and we’ve already seen concerns surrounding playmakers on the Packers offense too. 

With neither offense trusting their wide receivers at this point of the year, you can likely expect a considerable effort from both ground games. The Packers are led by a two-headed beast in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, while the Bucs have heavily relied on Leonard Fournette through two weeks. With both teams owning strong defensive lines, it could be a quiet day for both ground games.

It’s been interesting to follow the line in this matchup, which currently has the Buccaneers as one-point home favorites, essentially implying a pick ’em scenario in this game. The Packers have a slightly better price tag on the moneyline at -102, while the Bucs are sitting at -116. Looking at the money and where tickets are headed in this contest has also been noteworthy, which has seen the Packers tally 42% of bets and 50% of the handle against the spread, while the Bucs have tallied 58% of bets and 50% of the handle. As a result, there’s likely some sharp money headed in the Packers’ direction, but there hasn’t been a significant edge for either side on the spread. With such a small spread, you wouldn’t necessarily think that the moneyline trends would be much different, but that hasn’t been the case here, which has seen 67% of bets and 66% of the handle target the Packers. There’s likely some value present here for the visitors, meaning targeting them on the moneyline at -102 makes sense. 

Best Bet: Packers moneyline (-102)

You might be surprised at the total for this matchup, but neither side has found much consistency on offense through two weeks, and it’s somewhat unlikely that changes in what feels like a defensive chess match. The public has largely agreed with that sentiment, and some sizable wagers have targeted under 41.5. Looking at the numbers, 65% of bets and 71% of the handle have sided with the under 41.5, and it’s tough to disagree with that sentiment. Until Rodgers and Brady get more accustomed to the hands they’ve been dealt on offense, there should be a heavy dose of running the ball from both sides, and it’s hard to see either side having a ton of success doing that here. Targeting the under 41.5 here has some value attached to it at -105. 

Best Bet: Under 41.5 (-105)

Game Pick: Packers 21, Buccaneers 17 

Thumbnail photo via Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Picked For You