Browns Vs. Patriots Betting Preview: Trends, Props, Pick
Expect a lot of use from the running backs Sunday
The Patriots and Browns both enter Week 6 with 2-3 records in what promises to be an old-school affair.
Cleveland enters Sunday’s matchup as 2.5-point favorites over a New England team that will likely lean on Bailey Zappe for another week.
The quarterback matchup certainly isn’t one that will garner headlines, but Jacoby Brissett has managed the Browns well to be the 10th-best passing offense in DVOA. However, when looking deeper, Cleveland wants to and will continue to lean on the NFL’s leading rusher, Nick Chubb.
And New England won’t be much different as it looks to Zappe to simply not make mistakes, which is why markets aren’t exactly confident in the rookie quarterback, but the gap is shortening between Zappe and Mac Jones as the former continues to show what he can do.
Here’s what bettors should know before placing their Week 6 wagers, with odds and props courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Total: over/under 43
When: Sunday, Oct. 16, 1 p.m. ET
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium; Cleveland, Ohio
BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
Despite being teams who want to run the ball and play good defense, they aren’t opposed to going over the total on games. The Patriots have gone over the total in six of their last nine games, and four of the past five of Cleveland’s games have hit the over. This is the third time this season New England finds itself as an underdog, and it is 1-2 ATS and straight up. In what may surprise some, the Browns are a favorite for the fourth time this season, but they are 1-2 ATS and straight up in those games. Leaning on a Week 5 trend, the Patriots moved up to 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with losing records.
Historical trends can be misleading, but New England has had Cleveland’s number. The Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Browns, and Bill Belichick is 8-1 straight up against his former team.
BROWNS PROP TO CONSIDER
Jacoby Brissett Over 0.5 interceptions (+115) — Brissett has gone two straight games with an interception, and with the way the Patriots secondary has been playing, that trend is likely to continue. New England has picked off a quarterback in four straight games, and while interceptions are generally a noisy stat — Zappe’s interception came from a dropped Nelson Agholor pass — there’s a good chance the Patriots benefit for at least one more week. New England’s pass defense also ranks eighth in DVOA and ninth in expected points added per dropback, so they’re on a good pace to start the season, as well.
PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Jakobi Meyers anytime touchdown (+240) — Zappe established in his first start who his preferred target is. Meyers caught seven of his eight targets for 111 yards and one touchdown. Rhamondre Stevenson will get a ton of work on offense, but Zappe will get his fair share of throws in, and if he does throw a touchdown, it will likely be toward the Patriots’ No. 1 receiving option.
PICK: Patriots +2.5
The Browns have outperformed expectations through five weeks, especially on offense. But Cleveland is in for a rough stretch before its Week 9 bye, and it starts against the Patriots. A big reason is the Browns’ poor rush defense that ranks last in DVOA and EPA per play. New England doesn’t need an invitation to run the ball, especially with rookie Zappe likely under center for his second career start. Myles Garrett looks like a full-go for Sunday, but the Browns defense will be without two key contributors, which bodes well for the Patriots offensive line. If the Browns are unable to stop the run and force mistakes, it will mean three losses in a row for Cleveland.
