NFL Week 6 Picks: Big Day In Store For Vikings’ Justin Jefferson?
A confirmation in New England will be one to look out for
So, we thought “Thursday Night Football” between the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears would be bad, but not three points in the first half bad.
Nevertheless, we move on to the rest of the Week 6 slate, which actually sets us up for plenty of great matchups. I found an edge on three player props to bet the over on for Sunday’s early action.
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
Jeff Wilson Jr. Over 66.5 rushing yards
Wilson came to the 49ers in 2018 as an undrafted rookie from North Texas and has been bumped up and down the depth chart since. He was the team’s lead rusher in 2020 with 600 yards and has already shown promise of similar production this season. There was no doubt Wilson was ready to step into that lead back role once Elijah Mitchell was sidelined with a knee injury in Week 1. In the four games Wilson has started since then, he has hit this prop in each, averaging over 88 rushing yards a game in that stretch at 5.1 yards a carry. That success should continue in Week 6, as he is facing a Falcons defense that ranks just outside of the bottom five in rush DVOA. Expect Kyle Shanahan to stick to his run-heavy game plan, and go over on Wilson’s rushing yards.
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (-3), 1 p.m. ET
Justin Jefferson Over 86.5 receiving yards:
Jefferson leads the league in receiving yards with 547 — and with the second-most catches — through the first five weeks of the season. He’s tied for the second-most targets of all wide receivers in 2022, after leading the league last season in target share percentage. The third-year star commanded 29.1% of the target share in Minnesota in 2021 — a number that has gotten even better this season. He already has three games in triple-digit yardage through the air, averaging over 109 per game overall.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s salivating at the idea of taking on this Miami secondary that ranks as the worst pass defense by DVOA. Just last week, the Dolphins allowed New York Jets running back Breece Hall to have 100 receiving yards in a 40-17 Miami loss. The week before, the Cincinnati Bengals receiving trio had a day, with Tee Higgins racking up 124 yards and Ja’Marr Chase putting up 81 yards against Tua Tagovailoa’s squad. Week 3 saw Devin Singletary, Isaiah McKenzie, and Stefon Diggs all with 74-plus yards a piece through the air against the ‘Phins. The Baltimore Ravens’ Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews both finished with over 100 receiving yards in Week 2 against Mike McDaniel and crew. I’m expecting nothing less from the league’s current hottest receiver in Week 6.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-2.5), 1 p.m. ET
Keep an eye on: Rhamondre Stevenson yardage prop
(Patriots props are not posted Friday afternoon, as Mac Jones and Damien Harris are not officially ruled out)
The Patriots came into the 2022 season with a lot of questions on offense. The ability of their running back room was not one of them. Although Harris was featured as the main back last season, Stevenson made his presence known in his rookie year, with over 600 rushing yards in just 12 games. Stevenson actually averaged the same yards per carry as his counterpart Harris — 4.6 yards a carry — which ranked in the top 10 of all backs in the league. This season, he is averaging 5.5 yards a carry, which is actually better than Harris’ 4.5 and is tied with Saquon Barkley, just 0.2 yards worse than Nick Chubb for the NFL lead.
Not bad company to be in with two of the best backs in the league. Last week against Detroit, Harris left in the first quarter with a hamstring injury. Stevenson didn’t just step up. He dominated — with 161 yards on 25 attempts. There’s no better week to take the over on his yardage prop than this week — with his workload increasing against a Browns defense that ranks dead-last in rush DVOA, allowing 170 yards a game through the first five weeks. The Pats rush success rate ranks sixth overall in the NFL this season. Expect Bill Belichick to lean on the second-year running back, especially with questions at quarterback. Take the over on Stevenson’s yardage prop.
