“Thursday Night Football” between the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears may not be the sexiest matchup, but just think about how much you miss football in the offseason, and it’s not so bad.
Let?s enjoy it while we can and make a wager or two for some excitement. Plus, the rest of the Week 6 slate is great and I have a few teaser legs to consider, including the Patriots.
Washington Commanders at (PK) Chicago Bears
Terry McLaurin Over 54.5 receiving yards (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
While Curtis Samuel leads the Commanders in targets, McLaurin has dominated in receiving yards. He is averaging 65.2 yards through the first five weeks, going over this prop four times. Chicago?s pass defense is average in terms of DVOA, but outside of Aaron Rodgers, they have faced only Jimmy Garoppolo, Davis Mills, Daniel Jones and Kirk Cousins. They let Cousins complete 78% of his passes last week. Carson Wentz will have a field day. Plus, McLaurin has faced three top-10 pass defenses in terms of DVOA through his first five weeks and made his job look easy in two of them. I like the fourth-year wideout to take advantage of Washington?s opponent this week.
Carson Wentz to throw an interception (-115) at BetMGM
Carson Wentz has the second-most passing attempts and fifth-most passing yards in the league right now (210) with a completion percentage of 62.9% and the second-most interceptions (six). Simply put: He?s not afraid to air out the ball but is not always the cleanest when he does so. He has had at least one interception in four of the first five weeks and is now facing a Bears defense tied for the fourth-most interceptions in the NFL so far. It?s a simple prop and a simple breakdown. Add the wager of Wentz to throw an interception to your short list of reasons to watch TNF.
Teaser leg options:
I am giving you a few options here but will personally be going with the Eagles and Patriots, with a half unit on a three-team teaser. Remember, a two-team six-point teaser pays out -120 (make sure to shop around). A three-team six-point teaser pays out up to +160 (DraftKings Sportsbook).
New England Patriots from +2.5 to +8.5 at Cleveland Browns
Whether it’s Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe under center, I like the Patriots in this spot. Like last season, Bill Belichick is keeping games competitive with their run game and defense. While Cleveland’s offense may cause some trouble, its defense ranks dead-last in rush DVOA and ranks average in pass defense by DVOA. Damien Harris will be sidelined with a hamstring injury but Rhamondre Stevenson is more than capable to fill in that RB1 role, as we saw last week when he put up 161 rushing yards after Harris was taken out against the Lions. The Browns offense has exceeded expectations under Jacoby Brissett but have played four of their five games within three points and have been defeated by the Falcons and Jets. If the Patriots don?t win this game, they can control the clock and keep it close enough to cover our teaser.
Kansas City Chiefs from +3 to +9 vs. Buffalo Bills
This game makes up for any terrible game we must witness for the rest of the season (including this TNF). We get to sit back and watch two of the NFL?s top quarterbacks and offenses face off, which has led to one of the highest totals (up to 54) this season. I would love nothing more than the Bills to win this game after getting the short end of the stick in the playoffs with the wrong choice on a coin flip. That being said, getting the Chiefs over a touchdown at Arrowhead (one of the toughest environments in football) is too good to pass up. I admit, I faded the Chiefs in the preseason and went under their win total. After losing their best weapon in the passing game and having the toughest schedule in football, it seemed as though a decline was coming. So far, I stand corrected. Keeping in mind the fact that some of the top teams they faced so far (Cardinals, Chargers, Bucs, Raiders) have underperformed, the Chiefs still have the talent and coaching to get it done. Plus, Buffalo?s cornerback Tre?Davious White is still out since tearing his ACL, which bodes well for Mahomes and his weapons in the passing game. This is in no way a fade of the Bills who I do think can win, but I wouldn?t be surprised if this was a close one and came down to the wire like we saw in the playoffs last year.
Philadelphia Eagles from -6.5 to -0.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys defense is legit, ranking sixth in total DVOA. The only problem for them is their Week 6 opponent has just as stout of a defense (ranking 0.1% better in total DVOA). Even more worrisome for Dallas, the Eagles have one of the best offenses in football, ranking fifth in offensive DVOA. Jalen Hurts has quickly found his name in the MVP conversation while his team has the third-best odds at +700 on FanDuel to win the Super Bowl. The Cowboys defense will have a big task on their hands trying to figure out who to focus on between A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert in the passing game, to go along with a deep backfield including the quarterback himself. It?s true that Cooper Rush has stunned the NFL world so far. He has won all four games as a starter this season with 839 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions since taking over for an injured Dak Prescott. However, he has yet to face a formidable passing defense and they?re now facing an Eagles defense that ranks third in pass-defense DVOA. The Eagles should win this game by more than a touchdown but I?ll gladly tease them down to a pick ’em.
