NL Division Series Game 3: Dodgers vs. Padres Best Bets

by

October 14, 2022

Longtime NL West rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, are set to kick off Game 3 of the NLDS tonight from Petco Park.

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Los Angeles Dodgers (-126) vs. San Diego Padres (+108) Total: 7.5 (O +100, U -122)

After the two teams split games at Dodger Stadium, the series shifts to San Diego, with the Padres stealing home-field advantage from the 111-win Dodgers. The Padres’ home and road splits weren’t much different in 2022, while the Dodgers dominated no matter what ballpark they played in. It wasn’t hard to envision a short series with how well the Dodgers played against the Padres during the regular season, but that hasn’t been the case, and credit to the Friars for not laying down and folding in this tough matchup. With the Dodgers owning the best starting rotation, you would think they’d have had a more significant advantage on the mound in this series, but that’s something that hasn’t come to fruition yet. 

The pitching matchup for this Game 3 should be interesting, with Tony Gonsolin of the Dodgers taking on Blake Snell of the Padres. Although it’s not a crazy decision, it’s somewhat surprising that the Dodgers didn’t elect to start Tyler Anderson. The Dodgers have the luxury of numerous quality starters, and Gonsolin fits that bill, putting together a 16-1 record with a 2.14 ERA and 119 strikeouts. Looking at Snell, he finished the regular season with an 8-10 record with a 3.38 ERA and 171 strikeouts. With these clubs in the same division, both starters got some looks at the opposition, with Gonsolin facing the Padres twice and pitching two gems, leading to a flawless 0.71 ERA. In comparison, Snell faced the Dodgers three times and recorded a 3.86 ERA. It’s been somewhat hit-and-miss for Snell against the Dodgers, and the lefty did post slightly worse numbers at home this season. 

Even though it’s a small sample size, it’s hard to avoid what Gonsolin did against the Padres in two starts this season. In addition, the Dodgers’ bullpen should provide more confidence than San Diego’s, leading the visitors to have value on the moneyline at -126. 

Best Bet: Dodgers moneyline (-126)

Both games in this series have finished with identical 5-3 scores, with each side coming out on top in one of those matchups. What’s interesting about that is the total for tonight is listed at just 7.5, with the over paying out in plus-money at +100, while the under sits at -122. Snell has done an excellent job in the postseason, so you can likely expect a low-scoring and competitive game. You can tell that the oddsmakers are trying to make the over tempting, but don’t take the bait. Instead, side with the under 7.5 at -122. 

Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-122)

There’s much to like about Freddie Freeman and his postseason history, winning the World Series with the Braves last season. With the first basemen now in Dodgers colors, he can be the missing piece in their lineup and is coming off a two-hit game in Game 2 against the Padres. Going up against left-hander Snell, Freeman has recorded four hits in nine at-bats against him, so there’s some value in targeting him to record a multi-hit game at +250. 

Best Prop: Freddie Freeman to Record 2+ Hits (+250) 

Thumbnail photo via Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Picked For You