NFL Week 9 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Sees Colts-Patriots Defensive Struggle



November 4

The NESNBets weekly NFL best-bet parlay had its worst week of the season last week, and the losing streak has been extended.

There’s no reason to get into the past, and we are on to Week 9, so let’s just get into it and be on our way. This week was tougher than most to get a read on things, so we’ve limited the parlay to just two bets as we try to build this thing back up brick by brick.

Here’s the Week 9 best-bet parlay using consensus betting lines from the NESNBets live odds page.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots UNDER 40.5 (-110)
It kind of feels like the Patriots go under every week, but they’re 4-4 to the over/under this season. That being said, the under has hit in seven of the Colts’ eight games this season. As such, the total is finally getting an adjustment — this is the lowest number on the slate this week — but we’re going back to the Patriots’ under well at least once more. There are so many question marks for each offense right now. For New England, Mac Jones has largely looked bad since returning from his ankle injury, and the Jets’ defensive line battered him last week. The Patriots might have even more offensive line issues this week, and here come the Colts. New England might not have the ability to take full advantage of the pedestrian Colts passing defense, but the run defense — led by the return of Shaq Lenoard — is one of the best in the NFL. Having to throw a ton behind that offensive line might be a bit of a struggle. On the other side, the Indy offense has underperformed all season. Indy’s offense ranks last in the league in DVOA, and they’re now starting Sam Ehlinger, who will make his second career start this weekend … against Bill Belichick.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets UNDER 46 (-110)
Did you like what you saw out of the Jets’ offense last week? The idea of the Jets offense makes sense, at least in practice. You’ve got a quarterback with unique playmaking ability, and you spent high draft picks on weapons for him. In reality, Zach Wilson might be the NFL’s most reckless quarterback, and the loss of dynamic running back Breece Hall, paired with ongoing issues on the outside, has left plenty to be desired for that unit. The Jets are averaging less than 20 points per game over the last three weeks, and that number is slightly inflated from a blocked-punt touchdown in Green Bay in Week 6. And so here come the Bills, with a defense that might be better than the Patriots unit that flustered Wilson last week. Buffalo is a top-five defense in just about every metric. And while we have grown accustomed to that offense putting up major numbers, Buffalo might struggle with a Jets defense that ranks No. 8 overall in defensive DVOA and No. 5 against the pass. Even if the Bills can solve Robert Saleh’s defense early, we just saw last week against the Packers how Buffalo’s offense can go quiet for large stretches, especially if they have a lead.

Payout: 1 unit to win $2.64 units
To date: Down 2.77 units

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Thumbnail photo via Marc Lebryk/USA TODAY Sports Images

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