NFL Picks: Week 16 Best-Bet Parlay Nipping At Low Totals

What better time than Christmas for a NESNBets best-bet parlay here in Week 16?

We are seriously limping to the finish after once again missing a cashout by one leg in Week 15. In what only can be seen as foreshadowing another painful loss this week, the Week 15 parlay was done in by falling too hard for an ominous forecast. All the snow in Buffalo came before kickoff save for a little dusting in the fourth quarter, and the high-powered offenses for the Dolphins and Bills cruised over the total. Alas.

But Christmas is here, and we’re due. Whether it’s Santa or the gambling gods, we’re owed a gift one of these weeks, and this feels like the perfect time.

Here’s the NESNBets Week 16 best-bet parlay.

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears UNDER 40.5
Lesson learned last week with the Bills and the weather, right? Hardly. This time, it might actually be a true factor with the Windy City likely to live up to the moniker. Game-time temperatures are expected to be in the single digits — and that’s before taking into account the 20 mph winds, with potential for gusts of 40 or 50 mph. That likely hurts the Bills the most; Buffalo passes 60% of the time and has one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. The running game is improved but leaves plenty to be desired. Conversely, no one runs more than the Bears, which should keep the clock moving. Chicago should be able to move the ball on the ground but will have problems with the Bills’ No. 3 red-zone defense. And kicking will be easier said than done in that wind, so the Bears could have long drives that produce nothing. Will also be interesting to see how the Soldier Field turf holds up. The move to Bermuda grass always seemed curious for a place like Chicago, and the playing surface infamously failed its first real test earlier in the season in the Bears-49ers rain-soaked slop fest.

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 39.5
Another cold-weather game, another simple-minded square play. But there are serious questions about both offenses. With temperatures set for 12 degrees with that constant breeze that can really mess with the kicking game in Pittsburgh, points might be hard to come by. With the Raiders, it’s hard to trust Derek Carr. The Raiders are 0-6 in games he starts when the temperature is 37 degrees or colder. In those six games, he’s had a passer rating higher than 78 just once, and this Steelers defense has basically been a top-10 unit over the last month. The Steelers will have their own issues on offense, though, with Kenny Pickett coming back. Mitchell Trubisky produced a higher DVOA and graded better at Pro Football Focus than the rookie. These are also two solid red-zone defenses, at least lately. The Raiders have the NFL’s top-ranked red-zone defense over the last three weeks, while Pittsburgh ranks No. 6 (No. 7 overall for the season).

(-6.5) San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders
Getting under the seven is certainly appealing here, but the 49ers would be hard to ignore either way. Maybe the Brock Purdy experience hits its first real taste of adversity against Washington — the best defense the rookie has seen to this point. But the San Francisco defense is so good that it might not take that much to get the cover. Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke is like most quarterbacks: He’s far worse against pressure than when kept clean. But when he’s sped up, he’s very bad. Per Pro Football Focus, Heinicke’s passer rating under pressure (56.9) is almost 50 points lower than when kept clean. Only Zach Wilson and Mac Jones have a lower PFF grade under pressure among QBs with at least 250 dropbacks. He’ll probably get to know Nick Bosa this week. It doesn’t bode well for the Commanders that Ron Rivera is openly contemplating a move back to Carson Wentz.

Payout: 1 unit to win 5.96 units
To date: Down 4.13 units