NHL Best Bets: Senators vs. Maple Leafs Game Picks


January 27

Another chapter in the Battle of Ontario goes down tonight, with the Toronto Maple Leafs playing host to the Ottawa Senators.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ottawa Senators (+168) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-205) Total: 6.5 (O +104, U -128) 

This rivalry was expected to reignite this season, considering the Senators’ offseason additions, but they haven’t put together enough stretches of consistency. After a slow start for the Maple Leafs, they’ve been one of the NHL’s most dominant teams since November and are again considered a top threat to win the Stanley Cup. Even if they haven’t had playoff success, the pieces are there for this team to jump. 

These teams met on October 15, which saw the Maple Leafs pick up a 3-2 victory. The Senators enter this matchup with a 4-6 record over their last ten games, while the Maple Leafs are 7-2-1 over that same sample size. 

Looking at the projected goalie matchup, the visiting Senators are expected to turn toward Anton Forsberg, while the Maple Leafs should start Matt Murray. The Senators’ netminder has posted an 8-10-2 record with a .901 save percentage, while Murray is 11-5-2 with a .911 save percentage. The Maple Leafs’ netminder has shown more consistency, which is a significant reason their odds are appealing.

There’s no value in backing the Leafs’ moneyline at -205, and it’s tough to have confidence in the Senators. With the Maple Leafs’ consistent play at home, consider their puck line odds of +106. 

Best Bet: Maple Leafs Puck Line -1.5 (+106) 

Goal scoring and keeping pucks out of the net have been major issues for the Senators, while the Maple Leafs sit in the top ten in both categories. There’s not much the Maple Leafs don’t do well, and they should be able to use that to their advantage. Over the last five games for the Sens, one has seen seven or more goals scored, while the Maple Leafs have seen that in two of their previous five. The Maple Leafs have no issue playing a tight defensive game, which should be a big part of how they win this game. As a result, siding with the under 6.5 has some value at -128. 

Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-128) 

The Maple Leafs have a ton of star power up front and have been more responsible defensively this year, which has translated in the standings. Mitch Marner has continued to be a massive two-way threat for the Leafs. Toronto’s star winger has lit up the Senators over his NHL career, and there’s a lot of value in backing him to score tonight at +164.

Best Prop: Mitch Marner to Record Over 0.5 Goals (+164) 

Thumbnail photo via Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

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