Wild Card Weekend: Dolphins-Bills Spread, Moneyline, Total Game Picks

Two AFC East rivals will collide on Wild Card Weekend, with the surging Buffalo Bills playing host to the struggling Miami Dolphins.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The Dolphins and Bills enter this Wild Card matchup at two different ends of the spectrum, with Buffalo having won seven straight and Miami 1-4 over their last five. These two split two close regular season contests, each picking up a victory. Those games combined for only a five-point margin of victory.

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has already been ruled out. It appears the team is down to their third-string quarterback, as Skylar Thompson is expected to get the nod against Buffalo. With Thompson at the helm, Miami’s offense has struggled. Miami’s offensive line also might not be at full capacity, so Thompson making mistakes due to pressure is a possibility. 

There’s a lot to like about Buffalo as they’ve righted the ship and established their identity again. The Bills have failed to get over the hump in years past, but the experience should help them this time. The Bills are sizable favorites in this opening playoff matchup at -950 on the moneyline while also being near two touchdown favorites on the spread at -13.5. Even though Miami has played them tough, don’t expect their quarterback play to be on par, meaning the Bills should blow them out by multiple scores and emerge as the contending team we know they are. 

Best Bet: Bills -13.5 (-112) 

This is where things get a little tricky. The total for this matchup is 43.5, with the over sitting at -108 while the under comes in at -112. The real issue is how much offense the Dolphins can put forward in this matchup. Buffalo has had no problem moving the football against Miami this season, which shouldn’t be different in this third meeting. The Bills team total is 27.5, while the Dolphins’ is 14.5. It’s not hard to envision Buffalo exceeding that number, crossing the 30-point plateau, but it’s hard to see Miami exceeding their number. As a result, the under is the more logical play in this matchup. 

Best Bet: Under 43.5 (-112)

Game Pick: Bills 30, Dolphins 10