March Madness Bubble Teams: Will North Carolina Make the NCAA Tournament?

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Mar 8, 2023

Last June, North Carolina Tar Heels Caleb LoveLeaky Black, and RJ Davis announced they would follow Armando Bacot’s lead and run it back. 

Fresh off their fantastic run to the National Championship Game (72-69 loss to Kansas), which included a second-straight historic win over Duke in Coach K’s final game in the Final Four, UNC made a splash when four key cogs returned. 

The Tar Heels began the season ranked No. 1 in the preseason Coaches Poll (47 out of 62 AP first-place votes) and AP Top 25 (23 out of 32 AP first-place votes).

They would win their first five games leading up to the Phil Knight Invitational, where they were upset by unranked Iowa State. That was followed by a loss to No. 18 Alabama in four overtimes. While it turns out the Crimson Tide was even better than their early-season rankings, North Carolina never recovered from the Thanksgiving Weekend body blows.

double-digit loss at No. 10 Indiana and a fourth-straight defeat at Virginia Tech in their ACC opener would knock the Heels out of the polls. They reappeared briefly, earning the AP’s No. 25 slot in Week 8, but haven’t returned since. 

UNC officially became a bubble team when they lost three straight ACC games (Pittsburgh, Duke, and Wake Forest) and four of five. Out of 121 bracketologists on BracketMatrix, only two have the Tar Heels in the field of 68 going into tonight’s ACC Tournament Game against Boston College.

As disappointing as North Carolina’s season has been, for many who tune in to college basketball at tournament time, your most recent memory is of Bacot, Black, Davis, and Love coming within three points of the program’s seventh national championship after being on the bubble.

Regardless if you’re a college hoops head, a March Madness casual, a true (Carolina) blue Tar Heel, or a UNC hater who refused to buy a pair of Air Jordans…you have to be curious… 

Can they do it again?

North Carolina is one of several compelling storylines on bubble watch during conference tournament week.

Top Bubble Stories to Watch This Week

Michigan: Like the Heels, the Wolverines (lost to UNC in Dec.) began the season ranked and find themselves on the bubble with just two of 121 bracketologists including them in the field. With big names like Hunter Dickinson and Jett Howard, as well as rising sophomore Kobe Bufkin, Michigan has a team that could make noise just as they did last season when they made the Sweet 16 as an 11th seed.

Big Ten Tournament: March 9 vs. Rutgers (2nd Round)

Pittsburgh: Back to the ACC, Pitt hasn’t been to the Big Dance since 2016. Coming off an 11-21 season, expectations weren’t high in Western PA, but Jeff Capel has been a brilliant maestro, orchestrating a group whose five leading scorers are all transfers. Former Ole Miss Rebel Blake Hinson (16.1 PPG) leads the way, with Jamarius Burton (15.6 PPG) and Nelly Cummings (11.3 PPG) on their third teams—quintessential modern CBB.

ACC Tournament: March 8 vs. Georgia Tech (2nd Round)

Penn State: Let’s stay in the state of Pennsylvania, where the Nittany Lions are looking to secure their second NCAA bid since 2001 and first since 2011. They should be in the Big Dance per 109 of 121 brackets but shouldn’t assume anything. Overshadowed by Northwestern’s stunning run, let’s not overlook Penn State as a potential Cinderella after going into the season picked to finish 11th in the Big Ten by the media.

Big Ten Tournament: March 9 vs. Illinois (2nd Round)

Mountain West: No. 1 seed San Diego State is in, but No. 2 seed Boise State, No. 3 seed Utah State, and No. 4 seed Nevada are bubblelicious. Depending on how things shake out, Boise (in 121 out of 121) might already be in, while USU (89 out of 121) and Nevada (110 out of 121) currently project as No. 11 seeds in the Big Dance. It’s possible the Mountain West Conference could be a four-bid league for the second-straight year.

Mountain West Tournament: March 8-11

Check out SportsGrid’s Conference Previews: ACC | Big East | Big 12 | Pac-12

Thumbnail photo via Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

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