SportsGrid NBA Player Props Model: Top Plays for Tuesday, March 28


Mar 28, 2023

Bettors are looking at a six-game slate in the NBA tonight as the push for the postseason continues. Among the many recommendations via SportsGrid’s Player Props Model, I’ve highlighted three of my top plays.

Let’s get started!

Note: All odds and props courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

BOS Marcus Smart: Over 2.5 Rebounds vs. Wizards (-120)

SportsGrid Model Rating: 5/5 Stars
Model Prediction = 3.4

Smart enters Tuesday’s play averaging 3.2 rebounds per game in 57 appearances. The 29-year-old notched three boards in Sunday’s victory over the San Antonio Spurs and draws another favorable matchup against a Wizards team that ranks 23rd in points per game (112.9). That should allow Smart to do some work on the glass, and I like him to go over his market number this evening.

NOP Josh Richardson: Over 4.5 Reb + Ast (-106)

SportsGrid Model Rating = 5/5 Stars
Model Prediction = 5.4

Richardson has settled into a consistent role off the bench for the Pelicans, logging 20 or more minutes in four straight games, and could be called upon even more tonight against the Warriors and their small-ball lineups. The veteran has recorded over 4.5 combined rebounds and assists in two of his past four games, representing a solid play at his current value. 

MEM Desmond Bane: Over 4.5 Assists vs. Magic (-158)

SportsGrid Model Rating = 4/5 Stars
Model Prediction = 5.9 Assists

Ja Morant is out tonight, which should result in several playmaking opportunities for guard Desmond Bane. In the nine games Morant missed due to suspension, Bane recorded five or more assists in six of those contests. With added usage, and a matchup against a poor Magic defense, Bane’s 4.5 assists prop feels awfully low. Give me the over.

Thumbnail photo via Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

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