The NFL draft market largely has been consistent on who the No. 1 overall pick will be, but there was odd movement Tuesday morning for a very ridiculous reason.
The Panthers made a blockbuster trade with the Chicago Bears for the top selection in the NFL draft, and they are expected to take Bryce Young. There was some doubt Carolina would draft the Alabama product when C.J. Stroud's name was floated for the No. 1 pick, but the market has gone back to Young heading into Thursday's 2023 NFL Draft.
Will Levis has been one of the most polarizing quarterback prospects, along with Anthony Richardson. He is the favorite to be the No. 2 and No. 4 pick at FanDuel Sportsbook, which highlights the range of outcomes for the Kentucky product. Stroud's alleged S2 score also has contributed to Levis' rise, though the reported leaked S2 scores might not actually reflect the real scores -- there also was drama started by retired NFL quarterback Brady Quinn over supposed character issues.
The No. 1 overall pick market saw a big change Tuesday morning when Levis' odds moved from 40-1 to 4-1 in just an hour at DraftKings Sportsbook. His odds at FanDuel Sportsbook were at 45-1 on Sunday morning, +850 Tuesday morning and have settled at 7-1, as of 10:30 a.m. ET.
What's going on here? NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah ranked Levis 12th in his top 150 prospects Monday, and he had the Newton, Mass., native going 19th to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in his mock draft released March 21.
ESPN's Todd McShay wrote Monday, "Based on numerous conversations with league sources, I have every indication Alabama quarterback Bryce Young will be the first player off the board."
In a three-round mock with McShay, Mel Kiper had Levis going to the Tennessee Titans at pick No. 11. The New England Patriots, who have the No. 14 pick, are among multiple teams who have met with the 23-year-old.
The market movement had nothing to do with what NFL draft experts had to think, nor did have to do with a respected betting tout. All signs seem to point to the sportsbook subreddit, where a user going by the name "SaleAgreeable2834" on Tuesday morning published a post titled, "Will Levis is currently +4000 to be the first overall pick. Well ladies and gentleman, he's telling friends and family Carolina will in fact take him on Thursday. You're welcome."
The Reddit post seemingly made the rounds on social media, and there was enough action for sportsbooks to act upon it. When asked the source for this claim, the user simply wrote "Will Levis," which doesn't really answer the question and just doubles down on the claim.
The market movement on this Reddit post showed why the week leading up to the NFL draft is silly season. There isn't much value on picks because those were scooped up months ago. So how do people build value? They simply look too much into little details or read too much into a transcript, or in this case, go with a "trust me, bro" logic when they started up an outlandish rumor that friends and family of Levis allegedly heard.
The Panthers have been doing their due diligence and have looked at all the top quarterback prospects, so it's not outside the realm of possibility they see Levis as their guy, but it's important to read situations carefully, listen to smart people -- like on NESN's Ultimate Betting Show -- and don't go chasing wild rumors in an effort to make a profit that is never guaranteed.
