Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Series Betting Preview & Picks

Like David slew Goliath, the Toronto Maple Leafs will eventually need to get past an enormous foe constantly getting in their way. 

The Leafs and Bolts stand toe-to-toe for the second straight season in the Opening Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Last year, the Lightning vanquished Toronto in seven games, ending the Leafs’ hopes of getting out of the first round for the first time since 2003-04.

With another year of experience under their belts and one of the best-constructed lineups in the NHL, could this be the year the Maple Leafs go on a deep run?

• Game 1: TOR vs. TBL – April 18 @ 7:30 pm ET
• Game 2: TOR vs. TBL – April 20 @ 7 pm ET
• Game 3: TBL vs. TOR – April 22 @ 7 pm ET
• Game 4: TBL vs. TOR – April 24 @ 7:30 pm ET
• *Game 5: TOR vs. TBL – April 27 @ TBD
• *Game 6: TBL vs. TOR – April 29 @ TBD
• *Game 7: TOR vs. TBL – May 1 @ TBD 

Toronto has the benefit of home-ice advantage again this year, but that’s not the only advantage they have ahead of Round 1. For years, the Maple Leafs have been analytics darlings, and that’s no different in 2022-23. The second-place finishers ranked seventh in the NHL in expected goals-for rating, with a mark of 53.5%. More importantly, they reserved their best efforts for the end of the campaign, assuring they carry momentum into Game 1 against the Lightning. 

The Leafs have accumulated a 58.4% expected goals-for rating over their last 13 regular season games. Over that stretch, the high-octane Leafs are averaging 12.9 high-danger and 27.4 scoring chances per game. 

That’s the opposite direction the Bolts have gone, with the three-time defending Eastern Conference Champions stumbling to the finish line this year.

• Series Price: Maple Leafs -160 | Lightning +132
• Eastern Conference Odds: Maple Leafs +550 | Lightning +950
• Stanley Cup Odds: Maple Leafs +900 | Lightning +1700

Three extended postseason runs could be catching up with the Lightning. Since its Stanley Cup win in 2020, Tampa Bay has played more hockey than any other team. The Lightning have totaled 71 postseason games in addition to its 208 regular season games. The next closest team is the Colorado Avalanche, who have appeared in just 45 playoff contests. 

That could be a factor in the ineffective play from the Bolts to end the season. Tampa has alternated above and below-average performances over its past 13 games, outplaying its opponents in seven of those outings. In total, the Lightning have posted a 48.3% expected goals-for rating while dropping eight of 13 decisions.

Evidently, the Lightning are running low on electricity.

• Maple Leafs -160
• Total Series Games – 6 +198

The Maple Leafs must get out of their own way if they hope to get past the powerhouse Lightning. Toronto is superior, but they need their best players to stand out against the Bolts. Additionally, goaltending can’t be a liability if they hope to contain Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and the rest of the Lightning attack. 

Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner combined for 17 points last year. A repeat performance from the dynamic duo and sustained effort from William Nylander, Ryan O’Reilly, and John Tavares make this team a tough out throughout the playoffs. If the Leafs’ offense operates as efficiently as we’ve seen over the past month, they only need an average performance from Ilya Samsonov to move on. 

We’re backing Toronto to capture its first playoff series win since the Conference Quarterfinals in 2004, getting past the Lightning in six.