Buy or Sell: Rangers to Win it All After Trades?


Jul 31, 2023

The Texas Rangers have stolen the headlines as the MLB trade deadline nears, pushing their chips all-in to make a run at the World Series. Acquiring Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery will do that. Regardless of what you think about Scherzer’s 2023 campaign, he’s still Max Scherzer, so in an environment where all the pressure isn’t on him to be an ace, he could flourish. Montgomery doesn’t have the same appeal as Scherzer but has been quietly putting up a dominant season on a disastrous St. Louis Cardinals team, sporting a 2.37 ERA over his last ten starts.

With a dominant offense already intact, how deep can the Rangers go this fall with the league’s deepest starting rotation?

Buy or Sell: Rangers to Win AL West (-135)

The AL West is a two-horse race between the Rangers and Houston Astros, with the Astros only sitting a single game back of the Rangers in the standings. Houston has been a sleeping giant in the AL all season, completely flying under the radar, sitting second in the division while having a championship nucleus. They are also looking to add starting pitching reinforcements at the deadline and can catch the Rangers for the division crown. Given the juice attached to the Rangers right now to win the division at -135, I don’t see much value in that number. Given the expanded playoffs, the division crown doesn’t determine the postseason chances too much, so if the Rangers narrowly lose the division to Astros, it’s not game over. The Rangers are built for a deep playoff run, so treat them as such.

Verdict: Sell… to buy more

AL West Odds Update: Rangers Continue to Lead Astros

Buy or Sell: Rangers to Win AL (+350)

Looking at the AL field, I believe it’ll come down to either the Rangers or Astros to reach the World Series. While the AL East is highly competitive, the Tampa Bay Rays are overrated as they’ve gone 34-35 since starting the season 30-9. The Baltimore Orioles has been one of the brightest spots of the year, but it’s very conceivable to think their youth could ultimately catch up to them. Toronto, New York, and Boston are all vying for the wild card, but none currently present as serious championship threats. In the AL Central, the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians are irrelevant. Leaving the Rangers and Astros, with the Rangers’ elite starting rotation and deep lineup, one can see them outlasting Houston in a best-of-five or best-of-seven game series. At +350, it’s excellent value.

Verdict: Buy

Buy or Sell: Rangers to Win World Series (+800)

If you’re on the Rangers to win the AL, you might as well double down on them to win it all. The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers will be the presumptive opponents out of the NL, and the Rangers match up well. The Dodgers are top-heavy and don’t have reliable bats at the bottom of their lineup. Their starting rotation has regressed, and they have been dealing with injuries, which the acquisition of Lance Lynn can’t patch up. Atlanta has been the best team in baseball, but they could use an additional starter and elite reliever to shore up their team. Reflecting on last year’s Astros team, their pitching depth won out. No one could compete with their longevity. The Rangers set up similarly, so at +800 odds, it’s excellent value.

Verdict: Buy

MLB World Series Odds Power Rankings: Rangers, Blue Jays Rise

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Thumbnail photo via Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

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