MLB 8/4 Astros @ Yankees Odds, Preview, and Best Bets


Aug 4, 2023

As we gear up for more MLB action, all eyes are focused on the New York Yankees versus the Houston Astros. In light of yesterday’s game, it’s clear that the Yankees are not entering this competition as favorites despite their recent victory over the Astros. Why? It’s all down to one name: Luis Severino.

Once a reliable powerhouse in the Yankees’ pitching arsenal, Severino is now one of their least trusted players. His performance has been shaky at best in recent games, leaving fans and bettors questioning his reliability. Yet, it’s not all bleak for the Yankees.

The pinstripes are facing off against the Astros’ Hunter Brown, who’s been struggling with an elevated ISO power number over the last month, combined with a high-weighted on-base percentage. The Yankees, hoping for a windfall at the 75-degree Yankee Stadium, will need to harness the wind blowing out to left field and keep their bats hot.

Speaking of the Astros, their roster boasts a fearsome batting lineup against right-handed pitchers. The last month has been particularly successful for them, with Jose Altuve boasting a .441 wOBA, Kyle Tucker at .403, Alex Bregman at .475, and Yordan Alvarez hitting an impressive .561. They can wreak havoc in this game.

Especially threatening for the Yankees are the left-handed batters, Tucker and Alvarez. Lefties hold .392 ISO power numbers and a wOBA of .596 against Severino through 54 matchups. These numbers suggest they’ll be poised to do significant damage right in the heart of the lineup.

However, an exciting twist to consider: Severino’s history against the Astros. Despite his current struggles, he has experienced some success in his career against this team. If we remove Jose Abreu from the equation, the Astros are a .206 lifetime against Severino. But, can the Severino of old make a return?

The betting odds reflect the uncertainty around Severino. The Yankees are the underdogs at +130, but if Severino can channel his past performances against the Astros, they may pull off another victory. Today’s game promises to be a riveting rollercoaster for the spectators and bettors.

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Thumbnail photo via John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

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