Which Trade Deadline Moves Affected Futures Markets Most?
Analyzing the movement following deadline day in the MLB, we see some significant changes that are sure to shake up the odds. We can start the discussion by eliminating Michael Lorenzen. Despite being a solid filler pitcher and performing decently under the radar this year, his impact will depend heavily on the performance of his teammates.
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For instance, if Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos don’t start hitting consistently, Lorenzen’s addition won’t matter much. Last week, both players had slugging percentages under .100, indicating a significant dip in performance.
Furthermore, Trea Turner hasn’t yet hit his stride, and Bryce Harper’s return from injury hasn’t resulted in the power boost some hoped for. It’s reminiscent of Luis Gonzalez following his Tommy John surgery with the Arizona Diamondbacks years ago, where the power took some time to re-emerge.
Taking these factors into account, the real impact move is made by the Houston Astros. They were the team to wager on ahead of the deadline, knowing they were poised to make a move. The odds for the Astros shifted from +850 to +700. They are currently only a half-game out of first. If they manage to surpass the Rangers in the upcoming weeks, we could see the odds drop even further to around +400 or +500.
The Astros are a team that knows how to turn things around when it matters. They are battle-tested and know precisely how much effort they need to exert. With the addition of Justin Verlander back into the roster, who has pitched relatively well, they are well set for the season’s “marathon.”
Ironically, Verlander might prove to be a better acquisition than Max Scherzer in the same division. With Scherzer’s history of back issues and other problems over the past few years, Verlander’s arm, post-Tommy John, seems to be a more reliable bet.
On the other hand, the Orioles’ acquisition of Jack Flaherty might not be enough to bolster their campaign. They could have gone for someone like Verlander or even Lucas Giolito before the Angels snapped him up last week. If the Orioles get an early exit from the playoffs, it should serve as a valuable lesson: they can’t afford to be as cautious in their future trade dealings.
