NFL Week 4 Picks: Dolphins-Bills Game Of Year; Patriots Upset Cowboys?

Three weeks of the NFL season is still an admittedly small sample size, but nearly a month of football is at least enough to start formulating some earnest opinions.

Here’s one for you: The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are very good football teams. Buffalo ranks No. 1 in total DVOA through three weeks; Miami sits at No. 2 by the same metric. The Dolphins have outscored their opponents by 59 points, miles above just about everyone else in the league, except for the Bills, who have a plus-56 differential.

Suffice to say, this week’s AFC East clash in western New York is the game of the year so far. And when it comes to making against-the-spread picks for the showdown of rivals, NESN.com’s prognosticators Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle have spent their time in the lab formulating the hottest of takes about that game and the rest of the Week 4 schedule.

Not only did they make their full NFL Week 4 picks below, the duo each picked their three favorite bets of the week on the latest episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast.

Before getting into the full slate, here’s how they fared last week.

And now, onto their Week 4 NFL against-the-spread picks.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 28

(-1) Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Lions.
Ricky: Packers.

The Packers are tempting because it sounds like they’ll have Christian Watson and Aaron Jones on the field together for the first time this season. The problem, though, is on the other side of the ball. New Orleans largely got it wanted last week at Lambeau before Derek Carr got hurt. This Lions offense, which outfoxed Green Bay in Week 17 last season, should have similar success, especially if Jaire Alexander isn’t back from a back injury. Slow starts have been an issue for the Packers, and the Lions are the kind of team that could make you pay for that, too. –MC

SUNDAY, OCT. 1

Atlanta Falcons vs. (-3) Jacksonville Jaguars, 9:30 a.m., in London
Mike: Jaguars.
Ricky: Jaguars.

Good get-right spot for Jacksonville’s offense, which scored just two touchdowns over the last two weeks but is due for positive regression in several areas, including third down (29th in conversion rate) and ball security (eight dropped passes). Trevor Lawrence is PFF’s third highest-graded quarterback through three weeks, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes. –RD

Miami Dolphins at (-2.5) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins.
Ricky: Bills.

Sure, this might be an overreaction to what we saw most recently. But it feels a little more acceptable to overreact to an NFL team hanging 70 — on another NFL team. The Bills defense presents a difficult challenge, but Miami clearly has a quick-strike capability that not even Josh Allen can match if it’s really humming. The Dolphins present a ton of outs in that regard. –MC

(-3.5) Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Vikings.
Ricky: Vikings.

It’s crazy how the Vikings — big-time overachievers last season, when you consider the advanced analytics and their 11-0 record in one-score games — are dealing with reverse fortune this season. They’re better than their 0-3 record indicates, whereas Carolina doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up if this game turns into a shootout. –RD

(-3) Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Broncos.
Ricky: Bears.

It clearly hasn’t gone well for Sean Payton so far, but unless it’s already irreparable, you have to think he and Russell Wilson will figure something out at some point. The Bears, who could have all-time bad potential, seem like a nice get-right spot. –MC

Baltimore Ravens at (-2.5) Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens.
Ricky: Browns.

Been beating this drum since before the season: Cleveland’s defense is legit. And that unit — not Deshaun Watson — will dictate the Browns’ success this season. Baltimore’s offense obviously poses a tougher test than Cleveland’s first three opponents (Tennessee, Pittsburgh and a rusty Cincinnati team with a hobbled Joe Burrow), but it feels like Lamar Jackson and company still are searching for their identity under new OC Todd Monken. And that could play into the hands of Browns DC Jim Schwartz this Sunday. –RD

(-3) Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans.
Ricky: Texans.

The Texans’ defense hasn’t really impressed — at least not yet — but DeMeco Ryans is a defensive-minded guy who must be licking his chops with this Steelers offense coming to town. Nothing about Matt Canada’s system inspires hope, and whatever signs of progress from last season haven’t shown up yet. Hard to lay points with all of that on the table. –MC

Los Angeles Rams at (-1) Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts.
Ricky: Colts.

Would feel better if Anthony Richardson suits up, with Indianapolis’ offense sputtering in Week 3 with Gardner Minshew under center. But that came against a solid Baltimore defense. And the Colts still won in overtime thanks to a strong defensive effort. The Rams’ troubles protecting Matthew Stafford are far more concerning. –RD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-3) New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Mike: Saints.
Ricky: Saints.

Jameis Winston vs. Baker Mayfield. Hell yeah. At least Winston will get a week of starter’s reps, and Alvin Kamara’s return should help at least a little. The bigger thing, though, might be Mayfield’s difficulty in solving the New Orleans defense. It’s a higher-ranked unit by DVOA than the Philly defense that bullied Mayfield in Tampa on Monday night, and now they have to go on the road, too? Saints march. –MC

Washington Commanders at (-8) Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Mike: Eagles.
Ricky: Eagles.

This feels very similar to Washington’s Week 3 matchup with Buffalo, which the Bills won 37-3. Philadelphia’s elite defensive front will take advantage of Washington’s offensive line issues — the Commanders allowed 19 sacks over the last two weeks — and wreak havoc on rookie QB Sam Howell. The Commanders hang around for a few, before the Eagles pull away late. –RD

(-2.5) Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans.
Ricky: Bengals.

Even in a win, at home on a Monday night against a pretty bad team (the Rams), Cincinnati struggled. The Titans aren’t a whole lot better — they could be worse — but Cincinnati has been gashed on the ground this season. That’s the only thing the Titans do consistently well, right? At some point, Cincinnati will break out, and at some point, I’ll just have to give up on the Titans … but neither of those happens this week. –MC

Las Vegas Raiders at (-5) Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Chargers.
Ricky: Chargers.

The Chargers are the better team. And Jimmy Garoppolo being in the concussion protocol means a bet on the Raiders could turn into a bet on either Brian Hoyer (career journeyman) or Aidan O’Connell (rookie with zero NFL experience). No thanks. –RD

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New England Patriots at (-6.5) Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Patriots.
Ricky: Patriots.

The Cowboys were 5-0 against the spread following a loss last season, but injuries are a major concern heading into this one. There were four offensive linemen on the injury report, and there’s obviously the Trevon Diggs absence on the other side of the ball. New England should learn from its last matchup against the Cowboys and have a better defensive plan, while there has to be something they saw from Arizona running all over Dallas last week they can replicate with Rhamondre Stevenson and returning prodigal son Ezekiel Elliott. –MC

Arizona Cardinals at (-14) San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals.
Ricky: 49ers.

This is a huge number, obviously, especially for a divisional matchup with lookahead potential. (The 49ers host the Cowboys in primetime next week.) But San Francisco presumably will be on high alert after Arizona’s upset win over Dallas in Week 3. Talent wise, this is a major mismatch. Expect a crash landing for the Cardinals. –RD

(-9.5) Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs.
Ricky: Jets.

So, the Patriots beat the Jets in Jersey last week by five. The Chiefs are 4 1/2 points better than the Patriots, right? Kansas City’s defense has performed at an elite level and now it gets Zach Wilson. The Chiefs also have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, who could turn it on at the drop of a hat and get over the number. The Jets also might already be looking to let go of the rope. This could get ugly. –MC

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MONDAY, OCT. 2

Seattle Seahawks at (-1) New York Giants, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks.
Ricky: Seahawks.

Mike made a very compelling case on “The Spread” this week as to why the Giants might be the worst team in the NFL. Who am I to argue with a co-worker? Especially when he’s 100% correct in his assessment. –RD