NFL Week 6 Best-Bet Parlay: Attacking Big Favorites In Different Way

There are six favorites of a touchdown or more including three NFL Week 6 games that feature double-digit point spreads.

We’ve opted to back three of those favorites in our Week 6 best-bet parlay. However, we’re going to attack them in a bit of a different way rather than lay the moneyline juice which ranges from -590 (Kansas City Chiefs) to -1100 (Buffalo Bills).

Here are four picks in our NFL Week 6 best-bet parlay. Betting lines and prices courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, which are also shared on NESNBets.com live odds page.

San Francisco 49ers Over 23.5 points at Cleveland Browns (-106)
The Browns’ defense has been very good. It ranks No. 1 in expected points added (EPA), and at 0.33 EPA per play the group is well ahead of everyone else. But the Browns surely have benefited from going against offenses like injury-plagued Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (Week 1), the Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 2) and Tennessee Titans (Week 3). The 49ers’ offense proved against the Dallas Cowboys it is far superior to any of those. Dallas dropped from first to fifth in points allowed per game and from No. 1 to No. 8 in DVOA after the Week 5 blowout. Cleveland is coming off a bye, but this is a bet on Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which ranks second in points per game (33.4), to reach a gettable total. The total was 37.5 on FanDuel as of Thursday evening.

(-9.5) Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers (-205)
Miami currently is favored by 13.5 points against Carolina, but we’re going to manipulate the spread and get under the key number of 10. While the Dolphins will be without speedy running back De’Von Achane, the Panthers have looked like arguably the worst team in the league. And Miami head coach Mike McDaniel has earned trust in that he can play without key offensive weapons, like when the ‘Fins scored 70 points against the Denver Broncos without Jaylen Waddle.

(-3) Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-120)
It’s not too often we’d recommend backing a road favorite against a home team coming off its bye week. But the 4-1 Lions might actually be underrated. Detroit is coming off consecutive wins in which they scored 34 and 42 points. Their Week 5 game against the Carolina Panthers felt like a spot the typical Lions would have floundered. Instead, Detroit earned a 42-24 win with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson leading the way.

Buffalo Bills Over 1.5 first-half touchdowns (-166)
We were flirting with the points here due to the same logic as Miami-Carolina. But a few injuries on the Bills’ defense ultimately had us switch gears and focus on Buffalo’s offense. The Bills are coming off a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London while the G-Men lost to the Dolphins by two scores. While the Bills had longer to travel home, it’s fair to believe Josh Allen and company will carry some motivation into the bounce-back spot. New York ranks 29th in the NFL in points allowed. The Giants also have allowed opponents to score two or more first-half touchdowns in each of their previous five games.

Payout: 1 unit to win 7.49
To date: 13-6 (Down 5 units)