Patriots-Raiders Betting Preview: Trends, Prop, Pick For Week 6
New England might actually score a touchdown this Sunday
The Patriots' horrid play the past two weeks sucked up any hope for the franchise, and fans will watch this Sunday to see if things can somehow get even worse.
New England has been outscored 72-3 in its past two matchups. Its latest loss heading into Week 6 was a shutout defeat to the New Orleans Saints and Gillette Stadium.
Bill Belichick and Mac Jones were most blamed for the Patriots' struggles, but there isn't an easy solution to New England's problems. The Patriots haven't scored a touchdown since Week 3 against the New York Jets, a skill position player hasn't rushed for over 100 yards or had a 100-yard receiving game and the offensive line can't block anyone to save Jones' livelihood.
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Ideally, the Las Vegas Raiders should be where things get better for New England, but that was supposed to be the case last Sunday. Of course, the memory of its humiliating loss last season looms this Sunday, but if the Patriots can't handle the Raiders, there truly is no bottom they can sink to with matchups against the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins on the horizon.
Here's all you need to know about Sunday's Patriots-Raiders matchup from a betting perspective, with lines and props from FanDuel Sportsbook.
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New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
Total: 41.5
When: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
Last season, the Raiders covered as 2.5-point favorites and went over the 45-point total. The Patriots are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog and as an underdog of seven or fewer points. New England also is 2-8 ATS and to the under after a straight-up loss, but it is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road October games. Las Vegas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games against AFC East opponents, and the Raiders are 12-2-1 to the over at home against AFC East teams.
PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Rhamondre Stevenson over 14.5 receiving yards (-114) -- To be completely respectful to Ezekiel Elliott, the veteran running back is dust. He offers very little in the run game, and his ideal trait as a pass protector is mitigated by a poor offensive line. The Patriots overall have regressed, but Stevenson's regression is the most disappointing, especially since he was drafted as the RB11 in Yahoo fantasy leagues, according to Fantasy Pros. New England has to find ways to get Stevenson the ball in space against a bottom-six Raiders defense in EPA per play.
RAIDERS PROP TO CONSIDER
Jakobi Meyers over 56.5 receiving yards (-114) -- Davante Adams' shoulder injury seemed to play a factor in his four targets against the Green Bay Packers on "Monday Night Football." It could be better this Sunday, but big-brain Josh McDaniels might continue to use Adams as a decoy, which would benefit Meyers. And there might not be anything better to see Patriots fans bemoan the team even more when Meyers goes off against his former team. Jimmy Garoppolo almost literally only targets two pass-catchers: Adams and Meyers, who command a 34% and 23% target share, respectively, according to Fantasy Life's utilization report. No other pass-catcher has a target share above 10% -- sad life for Hunter Renfrow. Meyers will see plenty of targets, and against a hampered New England secondary, he should have a big day.
PICK: Under 41.5 (-115)
It's hard to trust the Patriots to do anything, but the Raiders might be even worse. McDaniels' continues to make baffling decisions as a head coach, and his decision to kick a field goal in the final minutes of last week's game instead of going for the win nearly cost his team the game. Jones is prone to mistakes, but Jimmy Garoppolo also has moments where he makes head-scratching decisions, too. The weak offensive lines from both sides have the makings of this being an ugly game, which could be made even worse if Tony Romo puts on his optimism hat. There probably are better things to do in life than watch this game, but for NFL reporters and the sickos, a low-scoring affair is the play.
