NFL Week 6 Picks: Surprising Lions-Bucs Clash; Bengals Finally Back?

NFL Week 6 is upon us, and it’s the latest reminder that what looks good on the schedule when it’s released in the spring, doesn’t always play out the way we all imagine.

For example: The Thursday night curtain-jerker between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs was supposed to be a must-see clash between a supposedly rejuvenated franchise and the defending Super Bowl champs. On the latter, the Chiefs’ biggest accomplishment this season thus far has been Travis Kelce’s love life, while the Broncos fell to 1-4 with a loss to the lowly New York Jets.

That’s the same Jets team, of course, that more or less had all of its hope for 2023 dashed when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1. Had that not happened, New York’s tilt this weekend with the Philadelphia Eagles sure would have looked a lot better, huh?

But it goes both ways. Who among us expected the NFL to move a Detroit Lions-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game back into the 4:25 slot to showcase two teams that currently sit third and fourth, respectively, in the NFC?

Things (and plans) change. That’s life in the NFL. For bettors, though, it’s all about that individual game and its matchup, and there’s usually value to be found if you search hard enough.

NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle try to do that with their against-the-spread picks each week, which you can see below, but they also spotlight their favorite bets of the week on “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast.

Make sure you give it a listen and subscribe to make it part of your prep each and every week.

Before the full rundown of picks, here’s how Mike and Ricky fared last week:

Here are their NFL Week 6 against-the-spread picks.

THURSDAY, OCT. 12

Denver Broncos at (-10.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 8:15 p.m. ET
Mike: Broncos.
Ricky: Broncos.

Things are not going well for the Broncos this season, but Russell Wilson is showing signs of life and improvement from last year. Small bar, yes, but it’s not like Kansas City’s offense is setting the world on fire, either. The Broncos offer an opportunity for the Chiefs to show improvement, but don’t be surprised if Denver finds a way to sneak in the back door late. –MC

SUNDAY, OCT. 15

(-4) Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans, 9:30 a.m. ET (in London)
Mike: Ravens.
Ricky: Ravens.

Baltimore’s offense still hasn’t peaked, thanks in large to a number of dropped passes, but the defense is holding up its end of the bargain. This is a nice bounce-back opportunity for the Ravens, at a neutral site, after they gave away last week’s game against the Steelers. –RD

Washington Commanders at (-2.5) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons.
Ricky: Commanders.

The Commanders’ secondary is a mess; even the Bears were successful taking deep shots against a defense that has allowed the fifth-most big plays this season. That could mean a big day for the likes of Drake London and Kyle Pitts, although DC’s run defense has been leaky, too. The Commanders have allowed 143 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks, and here comes Bijan Robinson. –MC

(-2.5) Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears.
Ricky: Vikings.

Not overreacting to Chicago’s Week 5 blowout win over Washington or Justin Jefferson’s injury (in the short term). The Bears’ defense, ranked 31st in DVOA, still has serious issues, which the Vikings’ offense should be able to exploit. This could be a real coming-out party for rookie wideout Jordan Addison. –RD

Seattle Seahawks at (-3) Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bengals.
Ricky: Seahawks.

Are the Bengals all the way back? Ehh. However, the Seahawks might provide an opportunity to pick up where Cincinnati left off in the desert last week. Seattle has Pro Football Focus’ 23rd-ranked secondary, which is certainly better than Arizona’s unit (30th), but they have injuries back there, too. If this becomes something of a shootout, the Bengals should be able to pull away. –MC

(-6.5) San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: 49ers.
Ricky: 49ers.

Really wanted to take Cleveland this week, with San Francisco’s market soaring after a demolition of Dallas in primetime. The Browns’ defense is legit. But there’s a chance P.J. Walker starts at quarterback for Cleveland, with Deshaun Watson’s status unclear. And if that’s the case… yikes. –RD

(-1.5) New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Saints.
Ricky: Saints.

Don’t think there’s a massive home-field advantage for Houston, so the line more or less checks out. The Saints’ defense remains perhaps the most underrated unit in the entire NFL. They just don’t let teams score 20 points. For as good as C.J. Stroud has been so far, this is the best defense he’s seen since Week 1 against Baltimore when the Ravens held the Texans to nine points. –MC

Indianapolis Colts at (-4) Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts.
Ricky: Colts.

This is a spot play. According to Action Network, 11 teams have played the following week after traveling to London, without the benefit of a bye. All 11 were tied or trailing in the fourth quarter. The Jaguars are returning home after *two weeks* in London — a first in NFL history — before then heading back out on the road for matchups with the Saints (Thursday night) and the Steelers. And the Colts are a formidable divisional opponent. –RD

Carolina Panthers at (-13.5) Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins.
Ricky: Dolphins.

Miami was really impressive last week, covering a 13-point spread against the Giants with a 31-16 win. That number could have been even more lopsided. New York scored on a 102-yard interception return (on a tipped pick, no less) that probably was a 14-point swing on the spread. The Panthers currently live in the same neighborhood as the Giants. –MC

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New England Patriots at (-3) Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Patriots.
Ricky: Patriots.

All of the criticism directed toward New England this week is warranted. The Patriots are a bad football team, both offensively and defensively. But the Raiders are no great shakes, either. This is a fade of Vegas more than anything, with the expectation that Bill Belichick will be able to dial up something to fluster Jimmy Garoppolo in a kitchen-sink spot for the Pats. –RD

(-3) Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Lions.
Ricky: Bucs.

A lot of this comes down to the Bucs’ schedule so far. The only really good team they played, Philly, blew them out — in Tampa. The Bucs did beat the Saints, but that was with a compromised Derek Carr. They do give up some big plays, which Detroit can certainly expose, but the Lions also have one of the most efficient offenses on a by-drive basis in large part because of an elite red-zone performance thus far. The defense has been great, too, to the point where it’s hard to see how Tampa Bay keeps up. –MC

Arizona Cardinals at (-7) Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals.
Ricky: Rams.

The Rams might be a little underrated. They’ve had the NFL’s second-hardest schedule thus far and managed to go 2-3 SU in their first five games. They lost by seven to the 49ers (an undefeated team blowing out everyone), by three to the Bengals (a Monday night grind on the road) and by nine to the Eagles (another undefeated opponent with Super Bowl aspirations). Their offense ranks ninth in DVOA, they just got back Cooper Kupp and they’re obviously well-coached with Sean McVay pulling the strings. –RD

(-7) Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Jets.
Ricky: Jets.

Do the Jets have a little momentum? They parlayed that impressive Week 4 performance against the Chiefs into an actual win last week in Denver. This is obviously a step up in competition, but that’s a good chunk of points for a home team with that sort of defense. The Eagles finally started to get the offense humming, but it’s going to be hard to keep that going in this spot, which points to something like a 19-13 final here. –MC

New York Giants at (-14) Buffalo Bills, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Bills.
Ricky: Giants.

Key injuries are piling up on the defensive side for Buffalo. The Bills lost cornerback Tre’Davious White, linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones — three impact players — and that’s enough to think twice about laying such a huge number here, even though the Giants are terrible. –RD

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MONDAY, OCT. 16

(-2) Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys.
Ricky: Cowboys.

Justin Herbert is dealing with his hand injury, so who knows how that might affect the Chargers’ offense. The bigger issue, though, might be the defense. The Chargers are ranked 28th in yards per play allowed (no one has allowed more explosive plays) and are allowing the seventh-most yards per drive. The Dallas offense hasn’t clicked just yet, but this seems like a spot for them to show they’re better off without Kellen Moore. –MC