NFL Week 12 Picks: Predictions For Thanksgiving, Black Friday, More

Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome to Week 12 in the NFL, where it’s time to make some picks — a lot of picks.

If you love football, this is the week for you. In addition to a full helping on Turkey Day, with three games over 12 hours, we also get our first taste of Black Friday in the NFL when the Dolphins and Jets battle Friday afternoon in the Meadowlands.

That all leads up to an otherwise full Sunday, too, and we’re not even including the college games, where we’ve got the game of the century on tap Saturday in Ann Arbor, Mich.

We’re here to talk about the professionals, though. NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle gave listeners of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast, plenty to be thankful for this year — with not one, but two episodes this week.

The first is a full rundown of the three games on Thanksgiving.

The guys aren’t just doing Turkey Day and calling it a week, of course. They also made against-the-spread picks for every NFL Week 12 game.

But first, here’s how they fared in Week 11.

Here are their NFL Week 12 against-the-spread picks, starting with Thursday’s full Thanksgiving slate.

THURSDAY, NOV. 23

Green Bay Packers at (-7.5) Detroit Lions, 12:30 p.m. ET
Mike: Packers.
Ricky: Packers.

The Packers might actually benefit from a decimated backfield. Jordan Love just had the best game of his career against an awful Chargers pass defense, and Green Bay will have to chuck it around the yard here against a Detroit pass defense that is only marginally better. Since their Week 7 blowout loss to Baltimore, Detroit’s passing defense ranks 30th by EPA per play. This has all the makings of a shootout that goes down to the wire. –MC

Washington Commanders at (-12) Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 p.m.
Mike: Commanders.
Ricky: Commanders.

There’s a chance the Cowboys beat the stuffing out of Sam Howell while Dak Prescott carves up Washington’s suspect secondary. Dallas has the edge in most, if not all, areas and has pummeled inferior opponents for most of this season. Still, it feels like an opportunity to buy the Commanders at their lowest (coming off a walk-off loss to the Seahawks and a loss to the Giants) and sell the Cowboys at their highest (coming off back-to-back blowout wins). Washington’s six turnovers and struggles against the run last week were a bit fluky. Ron Rivera’s group finds a way to keep this within the number. –RD

(-7) San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30 p.m.
Mike: 49ers.
Ricky: 49ers.

San Francisco comes in riding a three-game winning streak over Seattle, winning those games by an average of 15 points. The Seahawks have played two top-10 offenses this season. They have allowed 37 and 31 points in those games, and the 49ers’ offense ranks first in the NFL by DVOA. They’ll get theirs, and it’s hard to see a Seattle offense that might be without both Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker III being able to keep pace. –MC

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FRIDAY, NOV. 24

(-10) Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, 3 p.m.
Mike: Jets.
Ricky: Jets.

At first glance, it’s difficult to handicap the Jets this week with Tim Boyle taking over at quarterback. The 29-year-old has very little NFL experience. And his production at UConn and Eastern Kentucky (12 touchdowns and 26 interceptions) was, well, underwhelming. Then, you realize New York’s QB play hit rock bottom a long time ago. So, you’re essentially betting on the same Jets, a team whose defense is capable of hanging around. –RD

SUNDAY, NOV. 26

New Orleans Saints at (-1) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Saints.
Ricky: Falcons.

These teams have combined to play eight games that had a final score of a field goal or shorter. Atlanta, weirdly, feels like the more talented team, but their advanced numbers paint them as one of the worst teams in the league. The Saints, meanwhile, are better than you’d expect from the roster. Basically, this is really hard to figure out! Atlanta is going back to Desmond Ridder, which feels like a bad thing, especially against this defense. Saints it is. –MC

(-1) Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bengals.
Ricky: Bengals.

Honestly, I don’t know what to expect from either offense. The Steelers just fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, while Jake Browning will make his first career start at quarterback for the Bengals with Joe Burrow sidelined for the season. The former largely is considered a positive development. The latter? Not so much. Yet, I’ll take the point. After all, even Browning might be better than his QB counterpart, Kenny Pickett. –RD

(-1) Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Texans.
Ricky: Jaguars.

C.J. Stroud just played the worst game of his career (three interceptions), and the Texans — who outgained Arizona by 100 yards — still found a way to win. The Jaguars are better than the Cardinals, of course, but the Texans winning without their best is impressive, and it’s the sort of thing that makes you believe they’ll clean those things up for a major divisional matchup here and get a signature win. –MC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-2) Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bucs.
Ricky: Colts.

This feels like a perfect time to break out the Spider-Man meme: Two mediocre teams still (somehow) in the playoff hunt (the Colts in the AFC and the Bucs in the NFC). Neither does anything particularly great. But Indianapolis is coming off its bye, while Tampa Bay is dealing with several notable injuries on the defensive side. –RD

(-3) New England Patriots at New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Mike: Patriots.
Ricky: Patriots.

Laying a field goal on the road with this Patriots team is extremely uncomfortable. However, I’m not banking on back-to-back Tommy DeVito showcase performances. The Patriots just need to slow down Saquon Barkley, which is easier said than done, but that’s literally all the G-Men offense has. The New York defense isn’t much better, and somehow, some way, with whoever’s under center, the Patriots win by a touchdown. –MC

Carolina Panthers at (-3.5) Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Panthers.
Ricky: Panthers.

Are you prepared to lay more than a field goal with the Will Levis-led Titans? I’m not. Sure, Carolina’s offense stinks. But only the Broncos and Chargers have allowed more yards per drive than Tennessee. Your move, Bryce Young. –RD

(-1) Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals.
Ricky: Rams.

Without Kyler Murray, the Cardinals offense ranked 29th in the NFL by EPA. In two games with him back, they’re 20th. It’s modest improvement, sure, but they have been competitive against Atlanta and Houston, two teams who are in the Rams’ neighborhood or better in the Texans’ case. The Rams, meanwhile, have struggled defensively since beating Arizona, so let’s take the Cards for a little revenge here. –MC

Cleveland Browns at (-1.5) Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Broncos.
Ricky: Browns.

Are the Broncos better than they were earlier this season? Absolutely. And do I feel great about Dorian Thompson-Robinson making his first career road start in Denver, a notoriously difficult environment? Not one bit. But Cleveland has the type of defense that travels well. A timely turnover or two will swing this game in the Browns’ favor. –RD

(-9.5) Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Raiders.
Ricky: Chiefs.

We all kind of keep waiting for the Chiefs to get right and drop the hammer, but it’s been a struggle for much of the year. Style points have been hard to come by for KC, in large part because the weapons just aren’t very good. Obviously, they’ll take 7-3, but it’s hard to lay this many here. The Chiefs just went down to the wire on Monda night, and now they have to travel after the holiday to play a divisional team with nothing to lose. I dunno, just feels like it’s gonna be tougher than it should for the Chiefs. –MC

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Buffalo Bills at (-3.5) Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Bills.
Ricky: Bills.

There was a stretch where it felt like Buffalo’s deficiencies were downplayed. Now, it kind of feels like the pendulum has swung in the other direction, with many writing off the Bills after they lost three of four from Week 7 to Week 10. This is still a very good offense, with turnovers being their fatal flaw to this point. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a huge win over the Chiefs in Kansas City and have two big NFC matchups (49ers in Week 13 and Cowboys in Week 14) looming. Perhaps that’s a recipe for a Philly letdown. –RD

(-4) Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Ravens.
Ricky: Chargers.

Sure sounds like Brandon Staley is out of answers when it comes to his fledgling defense (he’d ask you to please stop blaming that defense, though). That being said: Green Bay’s offense, often the subject of ridicule this season, just looked as good as it has all season against the Bolts. The Ravens can expose that defense even more … while also having one of the NFL’s top defenses. –MC

MONDAY, NOV. 27

Chicago Bears at (-3.5) Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Vikings.
Ricky: Bears.

Justin Fields’ return makes Chicago a live ‘dog most weeks, especially since it coincides with significant improvements along both the offensive and defensive lines. The Joshua Dobbs story in Minnesota has been really cool. But is it sustainable down the stretch? –RD