Greg Schiano has Rutgers at six wins for the first time since the 2014 season, their first in the Big Ten. The Scarlet Knights went just 2-6 against bowl teams, but five of their losses came against teams ranked in the top six in SP+ defensively, where RU’s offense was completely overmatched.
After posting a losing record in his first season back in Miami, Mario Cristobal has the Hurricanes bowling. However, they started 4-0 and were a kneel down away against Georgia Tech from winning their first five games to start the season. A costly late fumble triggered five losses over a seven-game span and a disappointing 3-5 ACC record.
The two former Big East foes will meet on Thursday, December 28, in Yankee Stadium for the Pinstripe Bowl, which feels like more of a reward for the Scarlet Knights than it does for the Hurricanes.
B1G Bets: Big Ten 2023 Season RecordBowl Record: 1-0 overall (+1 unit) | Overall Record: 50-27-1 overall (+25.5 units)
ATS: 29-14-1 | Team Totals: 16-12 | Game Totals: 5-1
B1GGEST Bets (1.5 Units): Season: 6-1 (+7.5 Units)
B1GGER Bets (1 Units): Season: 25-7 (+18 Units)
B1G Bets (1/2 Unit): 19-19-1 (Even)
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Pinstripe Bowl Preview: Rutgers vs. Miami (FL)Money Line: Rutgers -128 | Miami +106 | Total: 41.5
Time: 2:15 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN | Location: Yankee Stadium | Bronx, NY
Rutgers: CFP: NR | SP+: 59 | PFF: 74
Miami: CFP: NR | SP+: 22 | PFF: 38
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B1G Bet: Rutgers -2.5 Miami (FL)This is not a great Rutgers team, but they’re gritty, physical, and play hard. That is not surprising considering their headman.
Attrition has hit Miami much harder this offseason leading up to the bowl game. The ‘Canes have four starters in the transfer portal, including QB Tyler Van Dyke (headed to Wisconsin), and five starters who are opting out, including two interior offensive linemen. With backup Emory Williams injured, Miami is down to third-string QB Jacurri Brown under center.
Rutgers has no starters in the transfer portal, and only CB Max Melton has opted out, while TE Johnny Langan is out with a season-ending injury. Schiano’s roster is among the most intact for a non-playoff team this bowl season.
The Scarlet Knights know who they are. They play ball control on offense behind the running of Kyle Monangai (1,099 yards, 5.1 YPC) and quarterback Gavin Wimsatt (488 yards, 9 TDs). RU is 27th in EPA per rush and 67th in rushing success rate.
Miami’s defense was tough throughout the season, but if CB Daryl Porter Jr. (out since Week 10) doesn’t return, The U will be down six starters on defense, three of their four top tacklers among them. Safety was hit particularly hard as James Williams (team-high 73 tackles) and Kamren Kinchens (team-high 5 INTs) are among the opt-outs.
If they can, Rutgers wants to make this game a rock fight and lean on their defense, ranked 22nd by SP+, 45th in net points/drive, and 47th in EPA. Part of that formula is keeping their defense off the field with a slow pace on offense (112th in plays per minute).
It starts up front with linemen Aaron Lewis and Wesley Bailey, who allow linebackers Deion Jennings and Mohamed Toure to cover much ground on their way to 169 tackles.
Even at full strength, Miami has been inconsistent on offense, ranked 83rd in rushing EPA. Down to QB3, without two O-linemen and WR Colbie Young (Georgia bound), the Hurricanes will struggle to generate offense in the Bronx.
In a game where points will be tricky to come by, the Scarlet Knights are much less likely to beat themselves than the ‘Canes. Rutgers is ranked 20th in fewest turnovers (13) and 36th in penalty yardage, while Miami is 101st in turnovers committed (21) and 100th in penalties.
It will be chilly (feeling like 51) with a chance of precipitation. That should play in RU’s favor. It’s also hard to gauge how much a Miami team, once ranked 17th in the country and considered a potential ACC contender, will be excited to play Rutgers in the Bronx a few days after Christmas.
Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights have a chance to produce their first winning season and win their first bowl game since 2014. Motivation will not be in question for New Jersey’s state school.
Finally, I’ll take Schiano—who is 5-2 in bowl games—over Cristobal (3-3 in bowls) on game day.
I liked Rutgers better when they were the underdog, so I’ll downgrade this to a B1GBet (1/2 unit), but I am still riding with the Scarlet Knights highly-motivated playing in the northeast against a Miami squad that’s a shell of itself and has probably been more focused on recruiting.
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