A UFC Welterweight bout headlines UFC 296 as the champion Leon Edwards defends his title against No. 3 ranked Colby Covington.
- Date: Saturday, December 16, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena – Paradise, Nevada | TV: PPV
Undefeated Shavkat “Nomad” Rakhmonov takes on former welterweight title contender Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Rakhmonov has won 17 consecutive fights since making his debut in 2014, but more notably, he’s finished every single opponent (eight KO/TKO, nine submissions). Thompson is a veteran of 24 fights (eight knockouts, one submission) and is 3-2 over his last five contests.
Rakhmonov is one inch taller and has a two-inch reach advantage. Thompson is one of the greatest strikers to step into the cage, and despite losing a step, he doesn’t look like a 40-year-old fighter. Thompson will have the striking edge, but it won’t be as pronounced as you think. He’s never possessed power in his hands but has deadly kicks. Rakhmonov lands 0.25 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 0.43 fewer. The most pronounced advantage will be in grappling, where Rakhmonov has 1.22 more takedowns per 15 minutes and a 1.49 higher submission average.
Rakhmonov is a considerable favorite at -700. There are only two ways to go about this bet: a small, fun wager on Thompson at +470 (on the massive underdog principle) or Rakhmonov by submission at +155.
UFC Flyweight ChampionshipUFC Flyweight champion Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja defends his title against No. 2 ranked Brandon “Raw Dawg” Royval. Pantoja is riding a four-fight win streak and is fresh off winning the flyweight belt off Brandon Moreno. Royval is on a three-fight win streak with back-to-back finishes.
Royval is four inches taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. He will also have the power edge, averaging 0.99 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Pantoja’s 0.41. The Cannibal lands 0.96 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 1.18 more. Pantoja has the wrestling advantage, averaging over one takedown per 15 minutes more, but Raw Dawg averages 1.29 more submissions.
They fought before in 2021, with Pantoja submitting Royval. The champion is favored at -194, but this should be a closer fight than the odds suggest. Royval is wild and unpredictable, but we’re rolling the dice on the underdog at +156.
UFC Welterweight Championship Main EventLeon Edwards vs. Colby Covington
- Odds to Win: Edwards -170 | Covington +138
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +230 | Submission +700 | Decision -210
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes -196 | No +148
The champion, Leon “Rocky” Edwards, defends his title against Colby “Chaos” Covington. Edwards is on a three-fight win streak, including back-to-back wins over the former champion Kamaru Usman. Covington gets this title opportunity after a single win over Jorge Masvidal. He is also 2-2 over his last four, both losses being to Usman in title fights.
Edwards is an inch taller and has a two-inch reach advantage. Rocky doesn’t have overwhelming power (although he knocked Usman out with a head kick). Still, he has more power than Chaos, whose power is almost non-existent. What Covington lacks in brute force, he makes up for in volume, landing 4.1 significant strikes per minute compared to Edwards’s 2.8. Covington is also a highly active wrestler, finishing 4.05 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Covington will push the pace in this fight, but he can only win by decision. There is an off chance he will overwhelm Edwards with activity, but Edwards doesn’t lack endurance.
I think Edwards should be favored more than he is. At -170, lay it with the champ.
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington Betting Card- Rakhmonov by submission (+155)
- Royval to win (+156)
- Edwards to win (-170)
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