NFL Week 18 Picks: Playoff Spots On Line In Final Week Of Season
It all comes down to this
Just like that, the NFL regular season has reached its conclusion.
It feels like we snapped our fingers in September and woke up here in January. It feels like just yesterday we were debating the Jets’ Super Bowl potential with Aaron Rodgers under center and whether Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow was set to ascend to the MVP throne. Was DeAndre Hopkins about to flip the AFC South race upside-down, and was Geno Smith about to build on his comeback season and put the upstart Seahawks into the NFC contender conversation?
Yet, here we are in January, and it looks like all of those teams will be watching from the outside when the NFL playoffs begin next week.
While those teams don’t have much to play for in NFL Week 18, there is much to be settled in the regular-season finale. The AFC South title is up for grabs, with everyone but the Titans still alive. The NFC South is also a three-horse race, where Tampa Bay controls its destiny, but a loss to Carolina makes an Atlanta-New Orleans showdown a de facto title game. And then we have the Jordan Love-led Packers at 8-8 in the same exact spot they faced last year in Week 18: Beat a division rival (this time, Chicago) and you’re in.
NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle kicked a lot of these scenarios around while also getting into the looming Bill Belichick departure in this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast.
Give it a listen below before diving into their full slate of Week 18 against-the-spread picks.
Here’s how the guys fared last week.
Here are their NFL Week 18 against-the-spread picks.
SATURDAY, JAN. 6
(-3.5) Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, 4:30 p.m. ET
Mike: Steelers.
Ricky: Ravens.
No one asked my opinion, but I think the Ravens should play their starters for at least a half Saturday. It’s just as risky to sit them out knowing they have the first-round bye and will have to start back up in two weeks and try to regain their momentum. That being said, I think they will rest their starters, and the Steelers still have something to play for and can win this by a touchdown, at least. –MC
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(-1.5) Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Texans.
Ricky: Texans.
C.J. Stroud’s return obviously raises Houston’s offensive ceiling. But don’t sleep on a Texans defense that ranks No. 3 in rush EPA and looked much better up front in Week 17 with Will Anderson Jr. back. –RD
SUNDAY, JAN. 7
(-4.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Panthers.
Ricky: Panthers.
Baker Mayfield didn’t practice Wednesday while dealing with a rib injury. You have to think he’ll play, but Carolina’s defense has played better as the season progressed, so it won’t be a complete lay-up. It’s possible the Panthers already have their minds on the golf course, but they theoretically could relish the opportunity to play spoiler here, too. –MC
Cleveland Browns at (-7) Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bengals.
Ricky: Bengals.
Trying hard not to overreact to playoff teams resting starters. After all, laying seven points with the Bengals is incredibly uncomfortable. But Jeff Driskel is starting at quarterback for the Browns. So, there’s a chance they run the most conversative offensive game plan you see all season. –RD
Minnesota Vikings at (-3.5) Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions.
Ricky: Lions.
Dan Campbell, referring to the clown show that was the end of the Cowboys game last week, said, “We will use this as fuel.” The Vikings just had their souls ripped out by Jordan Love and the Packers and have the slightest of playoff hopes still left. Instead of resting everyone, the Lions use that Campbell mindset and pound Minnesota to get some momentum going into the playoffs. –MC
Atlanta Falcons at (-3) New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Mike: Saints.
Ricky: Falcons.
The Saints were 3.5-point underdogs last week in Tampa Bay. Now, after a road win, they’re 3-point home favorites against a team with comparable talent. That’s too big a swing, especially since the Saints weren’t all that impressive in their Week 17 win. The Bucs averaged 7.0 yards per play and shot themselves in the foot with four costly turnovers. –RD
New York Jets at (-1.5) New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Mike: Patriots.
Ricky: Patriots.
This was my top pick on this week’s episode of “The Spread.” I think Bill Belichick is done in New England, and just about everyone in the building knows it. Change is coming all across the organization. In that case, what does this team care about draft position if there’s no guarantee anyone is back next year? Belichick certainly won’t care. And you think he wants his last game in Foxboro to be a loss to the Jets … against Trevor Siemian? The Patriots should roll. –MC
(-5) Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars.
Ricky: Titans.
Consider this betting trend, via Action Network: “Teams in must-win situations in Week 18 to have a chance of reaching the playoffs are now 18-28 (39.1%) against the spread (ATS) when facing teams with no motivation to win. The percentage drops to 33% when that team is laying more than a field goal.” In other words, write off the Titans at your own peril. Tennessee always plays inspired football under Mike Vrabel, and Jacksonville is ripe for a spoiler upset with Trevor Lawrence still banged up. –RD
(-2.5) Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cardinals.
Ricky: Seahawks.
Seattle has allowed 170 rushing yards per game over its last six contests. The Cardinals have run for at least 200 yards in two of their last three games. That probably oversimplifies it too much, but Arizona could certainly win this game, especially with some extra motivation, having lost four straight to the Seahawks and now with a chance to deliver a knockout blow. –MC
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Chicago Bears at (-3) Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Bears.
Ricky: Bears.
Something tells me Mike’s pick is an emotional hedge. Anyway, I’m with him on the Bears, who’ve gained some mojo down the stretch. Chicago’s offense is clicking under Justin Fields, creating a difficult matchup for Joe Barry’s Green Bay defense. –RD
Kansas City Chiefs at (-3.5) Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Chargers.
Ricky: Chargers.
The Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 seed. They have no reason to even show up to this game, let alone try to win it. All of their focus this week should be on finding answers for its offense ahead of the playoffs. The Chargers, meanwhile, seem to like interim coach Giff Smith and will try to send him out on a winning note. –MC
Denver Broncos at (-2.5) Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Raiders.
Ricky: Raiders.
The Raiders’ defense ranks No. 3 in EPA/play since Antonio Pierce took over for Josh McDaniels before Week 9. They’re not rolling over for anyone, and that includes the Broncos, whose offense is no great shakes. –RD
(-5) Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Giants.
Ricky: Eagles.
Philly technically has something to play for here, but if they go in at halftime and see the Cowboys are pounding the hapless Commanders, they can call off the dogs. That could certainly open the backdoor for the Giants, who have been more competitive with Tyrod Taylor under center, including outscoring the Eagles 22-15 in the second half on Christmas Day. That, paired with the Eagles’ defensive issues, should keep the G-Men in this one. –MC
Los Angeles Rams at (-4) San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Rams.
Ricky: 49ers.
Carson Wentz was the No. 2 overall pick in 2016. Sam Darnold was the No. 3 pick in 2018. Now, in 2024, they’re starting against each other in a mostly meaningless Week 18 matchup. What a time to be alive. –RD
(-13) Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys.
Ricky: Commanders.
This is the toughest game on the board this week. The Cowboys need a win to clinch the division, and the Commanders might be the NFL’s worst team. But Dallas isn’t as good on the road, the spread is huge, and if the Cowboys build a big lead, they could ease off with an eye toward the wild-card round. It’s probably better for Dallas to just play this one earnestly for 60 minutes, and if that’s the case, they find a way to cover this admittedly large number. –MC
(-3) Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins.
Ricky: Dolphins.
The Bills, to their credit, are winning. But, with the exception of Week 15 against the punchless Cowboys, it hasn’t been overly impressive, especially on offense. Look for the Dolphins to bounce back in primetime. –RD
