Warren Sharp’s Expert Analysis: Betting the Under in Falcons vs. Saints

by

Jan 6, 2024

The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints enter their Week 18 clash with their playoff hopes still alive. There’s an edge to be had here with the total that jumps off the page to SportsGrid football analyst Warren Sharp. 

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If you look at the Falcons and Saints, neither of these offenses scares you at face value. 

Sharp makes his case for backing the under here. 

Dennis Allen may not be a great coach, but one thing is for sure: he does know how to coach defense, and he has been very successful in same-season rematch games since 2019. Dennis Allen’s squads are 13-3 straight up, and the under is 11-3 in same-season rematch games.”

A big reason for that, according to Sharp? The Saints defense.

“That’s largely because the Saint’s defense keeps their opponent’s offense in check. They have allowed more than 18 points in just one of those 14 games, and that was a game they allowed only 20 points in. They have held their opponents under the team total in 13 of those 14 games.”

On the opposite side of the field is Falcons head coach Arthur Smith.

“Meanwhile, Arthur Smith has not had much success in same-season rematch games. The Atlanta Falcons are 0-2 straight up this year in those matchups. This is a massively important game obviously for the future of both of these teams for the tenure of Arthur Smith as well.” 

Sharp has reservations about how the Falcons will manage here. 

“I just have my concerns going up against a coach who is so good at scheming up defense against opponents that he’s already seen once before this year. This should be a great game. I don’t expect a lot of fireworks. I would look towards the under.” 

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Thumbnail photo via Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

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