Will the 49ers and Chiefs Go Over Super Bowl LVIII’s Total?

by

Jan 31, 2024

As Super Bowl LVIII approaches, intriguing NFL betting trends emerge, particularly regarding the total points.

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49ers vs. Chiefs Game Odds at BetMGM

  • Spread: 49ers -2 (-110) | Chiefs +2 (-110)
  • Moneyline: 49ers (-130) | Chiefs (+110)
  • Total: OVER 47.5 (-110) | UNDER 47.5 (-110)

Remarkably, 75% of the bets at BetMGM are on the over 47.5, even though the over is only 6-14 in Kansas City Chiefs games this year. This statistic reveals a significant inclination towards a high-scoring game despite the Chiefs’ tendency towards lower-scoring outcomes this season.

The prediction of a high-scoring Super Bowl mirrors the approach often seen in national championship games in college football. The rationale is that teams are less likely to adopt a conservative approach, especially in the second half, even if they have a lead. Instead, the tendency is to continue pushing for points, aiming for a more decisive victory.

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Considering the scoring dynamics, reaching the over seems plausible. To hit over 47.5, a scoreline resembling 31-20 would suffice. While the San Francisco 49ers have a robust defense, the Chiefs’ offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, is known for its explosive capability. However, it’s noteworthy that no team has scored 30 points against the Chiefs’ defense this season.

The game’s tempo could be a critical factor. The Chiefs have a history of setting the pace early in games, as seen in their matchups against Miami, Buffalo, and Baltimore. However, if the 49ers take an early lead with their potent offense, it could significantly impact Kansas City’s game plan. The Chiefs might be compelled to move away from their preferred run game, spearheaded by Isiah Pacheco, and adopt a more aggressive passing strategy.

Given these dynamics, the over on 47.5 points becomes an attractive bet. With its unique pressures and opportunities, the Super Bowl could inspire both teams to pursue a more offensive game, leading to a higher-scoring affair than many of Kansas City’s games this season.

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Thumbnail photo via Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

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