A UFC Featherweight title bout headlines UFC 298 as the champion Alexander Volkanovski defends his title against No. 3 ranked Ilia Topuria.
- Date: Saturday, February 17, 2024 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Honda Center – Anaheim, California, United States | TV: PPV
No. 2 ranked bantamweight Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili takes on the former UFC Flyweight and former Bantamweight Champion Henry “Triple C” Cejudo. Dvalishvili has won nine straight UFC fights, beating Petr Yan his last time out. Cejudo is coming off a split-decision loss to the UFC Bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling.
Merab is two inches taller and has a four-inch reach advantage. Cejudo has more knockout power, but Merab has shown an ability to take punishment and continue forward. Merab lands 0.53 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 0.74 fewer. To add to Merab’s unyielding pace is an impressive 6.55 takedowns per 15 minutes to Cejudo’s 2.07 (already high).
This bout could come down to Cejudo’s ability to manage Merab’s pace at the ripe age of 37. Merab will most likely win, but I wouldn’t say I like his line at -235 in what could be a close decision. With Cejudo still maintaining his power, I don’t mind rolling the dice on him winning by KO/TKO at +650.
The Fighter Formerly Known as Bobby KnucklesNo. 3 Ranked middleweight Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker looks to keep the gate closed for No. 6 Paulo “The Eraser” Costa. Whittaker habitually beats everyone in the middleweight division, aside from the current or future champion. His last three losses are against current title holder Dricus du Plessis and two losses in title bouts to Israel Adesanya. Costa has always looked to have championship potential but hasn’t been able to get over the hump, losing to Adesanya in his only UFC title fight.
Costa is one inch taller, but Whittaker has a 1.5-inch reach advantage. Both fighters possess one-punch power, but Costa more so, averaging 0.17 more knockdowns per 15 minutes. The Eraser also lands 6.5 significant strikes per minute to Whittaker’s 4.47 but absorbs 2.99 more. The grappling looks pretty even, as both fighters have similar takedown and takedown defense rates while lacking submission attempts.
Whittaker is a significant favorite at -250, but Costa’s style could quickly gain him an upset win. At +400, Costa by KO/TKO has a lot of value.
UFC Featherweight Championship Main EventAlexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria
- Odds to Win: Volkanovski -122 | Topuria +100
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +115 | Submission +390 | Decision +125
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +136 | No -174
Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski returns to featherweight to defend his title against No. 3 ranked Ilia “El Matador” Topuria. Volkanovski has three losses in his 29-fight career, a TKO defeat at welterweight in a 2013 tournament, and two losses in UFC Lightweight championship contests to Islam Makhachev. Topuria has never lost, sitting at 14-0 and winning six straight UFC bouts.
Topuria is one inch taller, but Volkanovski has a 2.5-inch reach advantage. El Matador has the power edge, averaging 0.6 more takedowns per 15 minutes. However, Volkanovski keeps up a constant pace, landing 6.19 significant strikes per minute to Topuria’s 4.44. Topuria is the more active grappler, averaging 2.19 takedowns and 1.46 submissions per 15 minutes.
For my money, Volkanovski is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world right now. The wheels could eventually fall off due to his activity and the high level of opponents he constantly faces, but until they do, I can’t pick against the Aussie. Take Volkanovski to win outright at -122.
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Betting Card- Cejudo by KO/TKO (+650)
- Costa by KO/TKO (+400)
- Volkanovski to win (-122)
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