Which Defense has the Edge in Super Bowl LVIII?

by

Feb 1, 2024

As the Super Bowl LVIII matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs draws near, NFL enthusiasts are eagerly dissecting the game and analyzing key factors that could influence the outcome.

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49ers vs. Chiefs Game Odds at FanDuel

  • Spread: 49ers -2.5 (-105) | Chiefs +2.5 (-115)
  • Moneyline: 49ers (-130) | Chiefs (+110)
  • Total: OVER 47.5 (-110) | UNDER 47.5 (-110)

One area of concern for the 49ers is their defense, particularly their secondary. Facing a formidable Chiefs offense led by Patrick Mahomes.

The 49ers also must contend with an elite secondary that includes standout players like L’Jarius Sneed. In recent games, we’ve witnessed the Chiefs’ corners and safeties effortlessly covering receivers down the field, preventing big plays. This outstanding secondary has raised questions about the Niners’ ability to generate passing offense.

Additionally, the 49ers have been grappling with a struggling run defense. Recent opponents, including the Detroit Lions, found success both on the ground and through the air against the Niners. Some analysts have even labeled the 49ers’ secondary as subpar, a significant departure from the unit’s strength in past seasons, especially when Richard Sherman was a key presence.

The loss of several elite defensive-minded coaches to head coaching positions in other cities has also taken a toll on the 49ers’ defense. DeMeco Ryan‘s departure last season was just the latest example of this trend, leaving the team with a sense of uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball.

Many expect the 49ers to emphasize the ground game in the Super Bowl to compensate for their defensive struggles. With Christian McCaffrey in their arsenal, the 49ers boast a potent rushing attack. Interestingly, when examining the statistics, it appears that the Chiefs might struggle against the 49ers’ rushing attack. In particular, the 49ers excel when utilizing two running back sets, ranking as the best rushing offense in the NFL in such situations. On the flip side, the Chiefs rank 30th in various defensive metrics when defending multiple running back sets, specifically 21 personnel, which the 49ers frequently employ.

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However, the Chiefs’ defense does have a strength, and it lies in their ability to defend outside zone runs effectively. This poses an intriguing matchup dynamic, as the 49ers favor using outside zone runs from their 21 personnel sets. While the Chiefs’ defense is not infallible, they have shown proficiency in defending this particular concept.

The primary objective for the Chiefs’ defense will likely be to contain Christian McCaffrey effectively and force the 49ers to rely on other weapons like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. The Chiefs are well aware that Brock Purdy can be a formidable quarterback when given the opportunity.

As Super Bowl LVIII approaches, the defensive strategies and matchups will play a crucial role in determining the outcome. The Chiefs will look to exploit the 49ers’ defensive vulnerabilities, while the 49ers will aim to establish dominance on the ground. The stage is set for a thrilling showdown between two talented teams, and football fans worldwide will be eagerly watching to see which side comes out on top.

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Thumbnail photo via Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

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