Photos of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady working out with rookie wideout N’Keal Harry and grizzled vet Julian Edelman over the weekend elicited two polar opposite reactions.
The most common came from Patriots fans who suddenly had sky-high expectations for Harry. It’s uncommon to be invited to work out with Brady and Edelman. That kind of personal 1-on-1 time from the greatest quarterback of all time and one of the league’s most savvy receivers can only reap rewards.
The other? “If Brady can work out at home with Edelman and Harry, then why can’t he be at organized team activities?”
I don’t want to dive too deep into a reaction to the latter take, but first, some background: Brady skipped OTAs last spring, as well. The Patriots went on to win Super Bowl LIII.
Brady is skipping them again. It’s seven practices. The Patriots held three practices in Week 1, two in Week 2 and there will be two more voluntary sessions in two weeks. Next week is mandatory minicamp. Brady will be present for those three practices.
We’re talking about seven practices here.
It’s just odd to be getting worked up about this issue again this offseason. It was more understandable last offseason when there was still some leftover drama from the 2017 season. Now? Coming off another Super Bowl win when Brady’s absence from unpadded spring practices didn’t amount to diddly squat? To paraphrase Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, “What are we doing here?”
Let’s get into other topics in this week’s mailbag.
Any predictions for N’Keal Harry’s rookie season? Do you think he’ll get a shot at returning punts/kicks?
— @haroldtrent_
As I mentioned in this week’s mailbag video (watch above!), Harry’s floor as a rookie is Aaron Dobson’s 2013 season. That’s not a very low floor either — at least at sea level. Dobson had 39 catches for 519 yards with four touchdowns as a rookie. Dobson was a second-round pick. Harry was a first.
Harry’s ceiling is a 1,000-yard season in which he leads the Patriots in touchdowns. I think expectations should obviously be set somewhere in the middle.
Nineteen first-round rookie wide receivers have played in the past five seasons. They averaged 40 catches for 562 yards with four touchdowns. Those numbers are pretty similar to Dobson’s. Let’s now take out Josh Doctson, John Ross and Laquon Treadwell, all of whom played less than 10 games as rookies.
Those remaining 16 receivers averaged 48 catches for 662 yards with five touchdowns. That would be a rookie season in the range of D.J. Moore in 2018, Will Fuller in 2016 and Brandin Cooks in 2014. That seems pretty fair for Harry.
That’s also pretty much what to expect for wide receivers drafted in the last quarter of the first round over the last 10 years. Wide receivers who fit that criteria (taking out A.J. Jenkins, who played three games) averaged 45 catches for 629 yards with four touchdowns.
I think Harry could wind up returning punts, but I might ease him into that role. The Patriots tried to put too much on Cyrus Jones’ plate as a rookie, and everything toppled off.
Outside of the athletic skills, what kind of traits do you believe New England look for in a player? #MailDoug
— @alxromo
I don’t know this for a fact, but I would guess the Patriots look for leadership, intelligence, adaptability, willingness to be coached, work ethic and maybe, to a lesser degree, versatility.
Basically, a player has to be able to be inserted into the Patriots’ strenuous workplace environment and fit in. And a lot of players coming out of college wouldn’t be able to do that. A lot of players the Patriots draft aren’t able to adjust.
What are your thoughts on Wise? If Bennett suffers some age-based regression, does Wise have the potential to fill the Flowers role?
— @Mr_Rainmaker
Deatrich Wise hasn’t shown that ability in his first two seasons, but perhaps he could make a third-year leap. That jump typically takes place in a player’s second season, however. Maybe Wise is a late bloomer. Or maybe he is what he is.
Wise just hasn’t really played much against the run with the Patriots. He also isn’t as consistent of a pass rusher as Michael Bennett or Trey Flowers. If we’re being realistic, rookie Chase Winovich has more potential as a three-down player than Wise.
With Watson out for the first four games, should we expect any production from the tight end position? #MailDoug
— @JimGilhooly1957
Definitely. I think Ben Watson, Matt LaCosse and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are pretty close as far as 2019 potential goes. I liked what I saw from LaCosse during the Patriots’ first organized team activities session last week. Seferian-Jenkins didn’t practice during that session, and unfortunately, we won’t be able to observe another practice until next Tuesday.
LaCosse hasn’t been overly productive in his four-year career, but it’s obvious the Patriots like him based on the value and timing of his signing. The Patriots scooped him up on the first day of free agency. And he has some decent size and athleticism.
Seferian-Jenkins also has been a productive player in his NFL career.
I actually wouldn’t be surprised if LaCosse or Seferian-Jenkins leaped Watson on the tight end depth chart this summer.
do you think an undrafted rookie makes this team? and who would be most likely?
— @patsfandave32
An undrafted rookie has made the Patriots’ initial 53-man roster for 15 straight seasons. So, chances are high that one will do that again this September.
The current candidates are running back Nick Brossette, wide receivers Ryan Davis, Jakobi Meyers and Gunner Olszewski, tight end Andrew Beck, offensive linemen Tyler Gauthier and Tyree St. Louis, linebacker Terez Hall, safety Malik Gant and cornerback D’Angelo Ross.
Beck has the highest guarantees in his contract at $115,000. There’s also an opportunity for him to make the roster with Watson suspended for the first four games of the season.
Gant and Hall each have $85,000 guaranteed, while Davis and Gauthier have $70,000 guaranteed. To round it out, Meyers is guaranteed $60,000, Brossette $37,500, St. Louis $27,500 and Ross $17,500. Olszewski has no guaranteed money in his contract.
Wide receiver, tight end and offensive tackle are all pretty wide open positions, bettering the odds of Davis, Meyers, Olszewski and St. Louis.
I’d set Beck’s odds as the best and Ross’ as the worst. The best story would be Olszewski making the roster. He played cornerback in college at the Division II level at Bemidji State, and now he’s been moved to wide receiver.
Do you think that the amount of coaching turnover will ultimately affect the Patriots this season? Especially with Coach Belichick taking on the DC role?
— @b3nbluhm
I think it could affect the defensive line the most just because Bret Bielema only has a year of experience on the Patriots’ coaching staff. Wide receivers could be affected too, since the Patriots are experimenting with using Joe Judge as a special teams/receivers coach.
Ultimately, it’s usually wise to bet on the Patriots to figure things out.
Let’s go rapid fire.
Who is going to win the Cricket World Cup #CWC19?
— @PaulFrame85
I have to go with England.
(I simply looked at the betting odds.)
Most impact rookie this year for the Pats #MailDoug
— @celticsin1
Harry.
At what point will we hear something about Josh Gordon?
— @Patsman11261980
Probably the moment I leave for vacation on June 14.
Can we create a bromance as solid as Brady/Edelman?
— @patsexcel
No new friends.
Will Jimmy GQ have a breakout season?
— @LT4EVER69
If he stays healthy.
How is Olivia? #maildoug #definitelyneedapicture
— @MrQuindazzi
The best. Right now, she’s really into yelling for me to come upstairs to play with her while I’m downstairs trying to work. It’s really cute, and I more than secretly love it.
Ben Watson: Super Bowl 54 MVP bound?
— @r_lopes12
Unlikely.
What’s the ultimate question to life, the universe, and everything?
— @JDoe3400
Want some pizza?
Tater tots or French Fries?
— @THE_JON_JOHNSON
Tots are more consistent, but fries have higher upside.
