Across the board, it applies — with Jason Bay in Boston, with Matt Holliday in St. Louis, with Johnny Damon in New York. Everywhere you look, there's a big-name free agent weighing his options, and staying home seems to be the best one. The incumbent has the advantage in a lot of races.
With John Lackey and the Los Angeles Angels, that might not be the case.
Lackey just got out of a four-year deal as the Angels' ace. He signed a three-year extension worth $17 million in the spring of 2006, and the Angels then picked up their option for another year, agreeing last winter to pay him $9 million in 2009. He's made pretty decent money over the past four years, but as a No. 1 starter on one of the best teams in baseball, he deserves better than just decent. He might find a fatter paycheck if he looks elsewhere.
Over the last four years, Lackey has been one of the most consistently reliable pitchers in baseball. He's given the Angels an average season of 14-8, a 3.50 ERA and 160 strikeouts in 195 innings. He's been an absolute rock at the top of that rotation, and he's still only 31. He's got a lot of good years left in him.
The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reported in October that while the Angels would rather invest in their bullpen, it's the Mets and Rangers that have the best shot at landing Lackey. The Dodgers are another possibility, although rumor has it that GM Ned Colletti has been playing dumb about the situation.
These are the kinds of teams that make sense for Lackey. Fringe contenders on the verge of being in the championship discussion, but in need of one more bona fide starting pitcher. They have the most to gain from spending their money on John Lackey. The answer lies in the margins, and heavyweights like the Red Sox and Yankees see less marginal gain when their rotations are already strong for 2010.
That doesn't mean we should count the Red Sox out entirely.
The Sox know what John Lackey can do. Unfortunately for them, they've seen it firsthand: The Angels' ace took a four-hit shutout into the eighth inning of their ALDS Game 1 meeting with Boston. Lackey's gem sparked a stellar effort from an Angels team that swept the Red Sox out of the playoffs.
That's the kind of spark the Sox would love to have in their rotation.
On the surface, the Sox don't appear to need another ace at the top of their rotation. With Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield already in the fold, their five-man slate is more or less set. But the Red Sox know as well as anyone that five guys doesn't make a complete staff.
The Sox need to have extra arms around just in case. When injuries arise, when slumps get serious, when the team needs to make a change, it's always better to have too much pitching than not enough. If the Red Sox are still one starter away from a complete staff, there's no better way to round things out than making a serious run at John Lackey.
But he won't be cheap. When the Yankees made their push for A.J. Burnett last winter, it cost them five years and $82.5 million. Lackey is a comparable talent, if not a little better, so he's not going to be making $9 million anymore. He's likely in for a big raise.
Lackey will be a big test of the Red Sox' willingness to spend. There's no doubt that he'd make the Red Sox a much, much better team. With him, Lester and Beckett at the front of their rotation, they would be the team to beat in the American League next season. But to get him, Theo Epstein and company will have to open their wallets.
Last year, the Yankees missed the playoffs and spent every penny they could to get back to the World Series. Now, the Red Sox have an opportunity to do the same. Lackey will be the litmus test.
