The first date likely will see little drama with the Red Sox. Adrian Beltre will turn down his offer and Victor Martinez is already signed with Detroit, thus giving Boston two draft picks. Infielder Felipe Lopez was the third free agent offered arbitration, but he is expected to turn the offer down as well.
Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Hideki Okajima and Taylor Buchholz make out the list of those needing to be tendered an offer by Thursday. Okajima is the one question mark. He might be left out and rendered a free agent, joining a list of potential non-tenders that could spark the interest of the Red Sox.
Here is a short list of some of those other candidates:
Jose Lopez, IF, Seattle: What makes Lopez particularly appealing is not just the fact that he is 27 and already has three seasons with at least 79 RBIs, but that he transitioned from second to third base last year and became a defensive standout. That makes him appealing to teams in need of someone to man the hot corner, a category that will include the Sox if Adrian Beltre signs with another team.
What makes Lopez particularly unappealing is the fact that he hit .239 with just 10 homers last season for the Mariners, and he owns a measly .297 career on-base percentage.
Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Athletics: Most of what applies to Lopez applies to Kouzmanoff. He has a very good glove, pretty good power and treats bases on balls like the plague. That’s pretty much what the Sox thought they were getting with Beltre. And like Beltre, Kouzmanoff would be leaving a pitcher’s paradise for a hitter’s haven if he went from Oakland to Boston. The 28-year-old has averaged nearly 19 home runs a year over the last four seasons while playing in the cavernous Coliseum and before that spacious Petco Park. He has slugged .461 on the road in his career, compared to a .386 mark at home. A breakout candidate at Fenway, to be sure.
Since Oakland has already brought in Edwin Encarnacion and has made a bid for Beltre, it’s very likely that Kouzmanoff finds a new home.
James Loney, 1B, Dodgers: This acquisition would make those Adrian Gonzalez lovers a bit upset as it would potentially block such a move and hand Loney the first base job, with Kevin Youkilis crossing the diamond, of course. Loney is no Gonzalez, but he would be a cheaper option and under team control for two more years before he hits free agency, giving whichever team picks him up a chance to see him audition for something long-term.
Loney’s numbers do not jump off the page and he regressed in a few categories in 2010. However, he is a .304 career hitter away from Dodger Stadium and has always thrived in pressure-packed situations, posting remarkable numbers with runners on. At somewhere between $4 and $5 million he could represent a quality run-producer near the bottom of the order and defensively can hold down the fort.
Russell Martin, C, Dodgers: Another LA guy who might be let go by the transitioning Dodgers, Martin has fallen off severely over the past few years and ended 2010 with a hip injury. Because of that he could be a significant risk. Still, he’s 27 and has always possessed a pretty good arm, something the Sox have lacked behind the plate recently. Maybe a change of scenery and a slightly more limited role will allow him to rediscover his once-potent bat.
Kyle Davies, SP, Royals: With Cliff Lee a free agent Zack Greinke a potential trade candidate, someone like Davies will not get a lot of attention. Even without those guys in the mix that would be hard to do for Davies, whose career ERA is 5.15. Davies could still draw some attention from a team like Boston, which should still look to add starting pitching despite its relatively stable rotation, just in case.
Davies is just 27 and did make all of his starts last year, something certain Red Sox pitchers cannot claim. He was highly regarded out of high school in Georgia and his current general manager seems to suggest that Davies will fulfill that potential someday.
"I think Kyle Davies’ best years are still ahead of him,"said Royals GM Dayton Moore. "I think he continues to get better. He’s just 27 years old next year, so there’s still some upside there, I think."
Davies himself said that he was "onto something"near the end of last year. If KC doesn’t think the progress is enough to warrant a roughly $2 million contract it could make him available to others, and the Sox could use some competition in camp.
Brandon McCarthy, SP, Rangers: Another one-time top prospect who has struggled to find success in the majors, McCarthy would represent another Theo Epstein reclamation project. Also 27, he did not pitch in the majors last year while throwing limited innings in the minors due to a stress fracture in his shoulder. Before you count him as a lost cause just know that he pitched well when healthy in 2010 and followed it up with a strong stretch in the Dominican Winter League (1.96 ERA).
McCarthy was 7-4 in 17 starts for Texas in 2009. He is cheap and may have something left to offer.
J.P. Howell, RP, Rays: He hasn’t pitched in the majors for more than a year but Howell had been one of the best relievers in the American League East for the previous two seasons, going 13-6 with a 2.48 ERA and 20 saves for Tampa Bay. The Rays will likely bring Howell back. If they surprise us, expect the Sox to have some interest.
There are several other relievers that will flood the market when their clubs decide not to tender them. For more candidates, check out this list.
