Perhaps Joe Maddon, whose Tampa Bay Rays had the most victories in the American League, was the best manager this year. But maybe it was Manny Acta, whose Cleveland Indians won just 69 times but did so with the youngest team in the league. It’s hard to say.
It’s an absolute certainty that Acta will not be given the honor, and he likely won’t receive a single vote. So, using criteria combining success and obstacles overcome, here are our predictions for the award in both leagues, to be handed out Wednesday:
American League
1. Ron Gardenhire, Twins
Remember, this is a regular-season award and the fact that Gardenhire fell to 6-21 in the postseason is irrelevant. Gardy, who has six division titles in nine years with what has been until recently a medium- to small-market team but has never won this award, is due. He guided the Twins to 94 wins, the bulk of them coming despite the absence of star first baseman Justin Morneau, who never played an inning after suffering a concussion July 7.
2. Ron Washington, Rangers
For the fact that he ended the reign of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the AL West (they had won five of the last six division crowns), Washington might win this thing. But the Rangers limped a bit down the stretch, going 26-27 over the final two months, and didn’t have the degree of injury woes that other top teams did. For winning a weak division he deserves some credit, but not all of it. Also, this was not as ragtag a bunch as some would suggest. They may have had the best pitcher in all of baseball in Cliff Lee and the best all-around player in Josh Hamilton. If the front office can be thrown into the mix, Texas wins it hands down.
3. Terry Francona, Red Sox
He has never finished higher than fourth in the voting despite a slew of 90-plus win seasons. Perhaps this 89-win campaign will move him up the ladder a bit, and it should. Nobody in baseball faced the roster fluctuation that Francona did and perhaps no division in baseball history was as loaded as the AL East was this year (four of the top 13 teams in the majors in terms of wins reside there). He also received no help from the front office in terms of a midseason trade, being forced to make do with Triple-A imports and doing a pretty good job of it. The combination of all these factors should warrant him some consideration for the top spot.
4. Joe Maddon, Rays
Two factors contribute to Maddon’s candidacy. One, he found a way to get a ton of runs out of a team that finished eighth in team OPS, supporting a quality rotation and a superb bullpen. Two, the Rays went 12-20 during a stretch that was punctuated by a fight in the dugout between stars Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton. They went from six games up in the division to three games down, and could’ve spiraled from there if not for Maddon’s steady hand.
5. Joe Girardi, Yankees
Before everyone piles on a Yankees manager because he is able to utilize a $200 million payroll, keep in mind that Girardi had his own share of obstacles. Several key players (Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez and Joba Chamberlain) had down years and two key members of the bullpen (Damaso Marte and Alfredo Aceves) never pitched after May, two of a handful of injuries that hit the team in the first half of the season. Maybe that’s small potatoes to some, but he could finish even higher if those factors weigh heavy to any voters.
Honorable mention
Buck Showalter, Baltimore
He only managed 57 games so that might leave him off some ballots. Because there were many people who paid close attention to the turnaround he engineered in Baltimore, he could finish in the top four or five.
National League
1. Bruce Bochy, Giants
San Diego Padres manager Bud Black appears to be a trendy pick but we will go with the guy whose team caught Black’s bunch in mid-September and then passed them for good in the final week. San Fran’s collection of misfits jelled perfectly under Bochy’s guidance. A rookie catcher (Bochy’s position as a player) was the catalyst for the second-half run, which of course lasted all the way to a World Series triumph.
2. Brad Mills, Astros
You thought we would go with Black here, right? Sorry. Millsy, as Francona and others like to call him, scraped his moribund ‘Stros off the mat after a dismal beginning to his managerial career. Houston started 1-9 and was 16-33 just prior to Memorial Day before Mills helped turn things around. The Astros went 57-44 over their next 101 games and flirted with .500 and second place before a slow finish ended that dream. Compared to their Lone Star State counterparts, this was a ragtag crew — Hunter Pence led the team in homers, Jeff Keppinger in doubles and Chris Johnson in hitting. Also, ace Roy Oswalt was 6-12 before being traded to Philadelphia, but Mills’ squad persisted.
3. Bud Black, Padres
OK, here he is, and frankly if he won or finished second it would be a sane choice. San Diego was known only as the team that would trade Adrian Gonzalez heading into the season, but wound up one of baseball’s most pleasant surprises. Under Black, a weak-hitting attack made the most of its scoring chances by playing an excellent brand of small ball, all in support of a surprisingly efficient rotation and a strong bullpen. The late-season fade was somewhat predictable, but it’s what keeps Black from winning the award.
4. Charlie Manuel, Phillies
The Phils were the NL’s version of the Red Sox when player after player went down with injury. Manuel helped keep the club afloat and when those players returned, unlike the Sox, Philadelphia soared past Atlanta in the NL East. They erased a seven-game deficit in a little over a month, finished six games up and had best record in all of baseball. That has to count for something.
5. Dusty Baker, Reds
It had been 15 years since Cincinnati reached the postseason, 20 since they won as many as 91 games and 32 since they won more than that. The fact that they did it with a relatively young crew is a testament to Baker’s job at the helm.
Honorable mention
Bobby Cox, Braves
He’ll get a plaque in Cooperstown someday but will fall short of his fifth Manager of the Year Award.
