While Blyleven had an outstanding career, many wondered why he would receive 17.4 percent of the Hall of Fame vote in his first year of eligibility (75 percent is needed for induction) and 79.7 percent in his 14th, when he finally made it. What makes him a Hall of Famer in 2011, whereas in 1998 he was just a footnote? It’s one of the oddities of the voting process.
Yet what allowed Blyleven to climb that ladder could let Morris rise to the top of the peak in the next two years or so, eliciting another set of debates surrounding a very good, but perhaps not great, right-hander.
To begin with, next year’s ballot will offer up very few certainties, if any. The 2012 ballot will not look like the one offered up in 2007, when easy decisions could be made on Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr., or the great 1999 class of first-ballot gimmes Nolan Ryan, George Brett and Robin Yount. About the best first-timers who will appear on the 2012 ballot are Bernie Williams, Ruben Sierra, Tim Salmon and Brad Radke.
Previously, in years when there are few guaranteed first-year picks, guys like Morris who have been sitting around for a while can get a big boost. In 2006, when the best first-year ballot choice was Orel Hershiser, Bruce Sutter was the lone major leaguer to get in. With little company at the top of the heap, his percentage jumped a full 10.2 percent, the largest year-to-year increase out of the 13 times he was listed on the ballot. Jim Rice, Andre Dawson and Goose Gossage used that uncluttered year to make big leaps of their own and get on the doorstep.
Blyleven made his big jump in 2008, going from 47.7 percent to 61.9 percent, when Gossage was the only guy to get in. In 2007, with all eyes on Ripken and Gwynn, Blyleven’s percentage actually dropped from 53.3 percent to that 47.7 figure (Morris dropped 4.1 percent in that same year). Essentially, when there are some shoo-ins on the ballot, the voters will often settle for those choices and worry about the tough decisions down the road. When the list is a bit more lackluster, voters tend to latch onto guys like Blyleven, who eventually found pay dirt in a down year for first-timers.
That’s what we might see again in 2012 with Morris. Barry Larkin, whose second year netted him a 62.1 percent mark, figures to be the one “easy” choice for voters next year. The highest returning vote-getter after Larkin is Morris, who will get a nice boost from his 53.5 percent mark, perhaps enough of one to get well past that magical 60 percent mark.
That’s where it could get interesting for Morris.
The last 13 guys to reach 60 percent have eventually been voted in by the BBWAA. Many others who fell shy of 75 percent in their 15 years of eligibility eventually received a nod from the Veterans Committee, including Orlando Cepeda and Jim Bunning. In fact, the last guy to reach 60 percent and fail to get in through either route is Gil Hodges, who got 63.4 percent of the vote in 1983 and then faded from such debates.
This is where it gets tricky. The 2013 class includes Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling and Craig Biggio (yes, we are aware of the steroids factor, but those are enough big names to muddy the waters for Morris). The 2014 grouping has Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas, Jeff Kent and Mike Mussina, and the 2015 class, which would be the last year of eligibility for Morris, has Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz.
If Morris’ big leap next year is not enough to get on the doorstep, he could be rendered an afterthought once the next three classes come along. If it is enough, he may follow Blyleven in soon thereafter.
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