The analysis immediately following the trade deadline Sunday was that the Rangers made themselves the favorites for the American League pennant. That may be true; a strong bullpen, solid rotation and one of the best offenses in baseball will be tough to overcome for top contenders New York and Boston, who have concerns about their pitching.
Still, Adams has one particular characteristic that should be cause for concern for the Rangers, and the source of some encouragement for opponents.
Not to go all Moneyball on you here, but there's a statistic called Fly Ball Percentage that's useful when a pitcher goes from a spacious stadium like San Diego's PetCo Park to a cozy one like Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Unlike UZR and WAR, fly ball percentage doesn't require a mathematics degree and a graphing calculator to compute. Fly ball percentage does exactly what it says: It measures the percentage of batted balls that are fly balls.
Adams' fly ball percentage this season in 40.7 percent, right at his career percentage. That's not an absurdly high percentage (Nationals right-hander Tyler Clippard leads all big league relievers with a 63.2 percent rate, according to FanGraphs), but it's high enough to put Adams in the top third of relievers.
Adams could get away with that percentage at PetCo, where even Adrian Gonzalez struggled to break the 35 home run mark (he did it twice in five full seasons). In Arlington, which has the highest home run factor of any major league park at 1.547, some of those fly outs are bound to become homers. And if those homers take place in the eighth inning in the middle of a pennant race or the postseason, the effect will only be magnified.
