You know how the NFL picture is supposed to get clearer as the season wears on? How the delineation between teams that are actually good and those that aren’t is supposed to become more obvious? How the mystery is supposed to dissipate with the benefit of a bigger sample size?
Yeah, that ain’t happening.
We’re essentially midway through the season and there’s still little known aside from the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots being really good and the rest of the league being nestled somewhere between OK and outright terrible. It doesn’t make picking winners any easier, we’ll tell you that much.
NESN.com’s expert panel of Mike Cole, Ricky Doyle and Ben Watanabe bounced back last week. If it’s given them any heady optimism heading into the new week’s slate, though, they’re not letting on.
A look at the standings at the start of Week 8:
Ben Watanabe: 59-44-2 (Last week: 8-6). Would have really “liked that” if Kirk Cousins had scored three more points to cover against the Bucs.
Mike Cole: 55-48-2 (Last week: 8-6). For the first time all season, he didn’t pick Jacksonville when he should have, instead of vice versa.
Ricky Doyle: 53-50-2 (Last week: 6-8). Just as he pulled back into the race, our rookie falls back behind the lead pack.
THURSDAY, OCT. 29
Miami Dolphins (3-3) at (-7.5) New England Patriots (6-0), 8:25 p.m. ET
Ricky: Patriots. Sticking to the script I laid out two weeks ago: Two good wins for Dan Campbell’s Fins before the Pats chop them down to size on national TV.
Ben: Patriots. The Dolphins have mimicked a quality football team here for the last couple weeks, but nobody knocks a fraud back down a peg like Bill Belichick’s boys.
Mike: Patriots. The Jets gave New England a handful last week, and the Patriots were still a Nick Folk 55-yard field goal away from covering. Also: the Jets > the Dolphins.
SUNDAY, NOV. 1
Detroit Lions (1-6) at (-5) Kansas City Chiefs (2-5), 9:30 a.m.
Ricky: Lions. Picking this game would be much easier if a certain sleep expert chimed in, because I’d just pick against him after that fraud wrongfully suggested the Jaguars would lose “pretty badly” last week in London.
Ben: Chiefs. In a matchup of teams that never cover, I’ll count on both of them committing hara-kiri after being tied 0-0 at the end of overtime.
Mike: Lions. These two teams are a combined 2-11 against the spread in their 13 games, so is it possible to predict a push here or nah?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at (-7.5) Atlanta Falcons (6-1), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Falcons. The Redskins hung 31 points on the Bucs last week. Tampa Bay has surrendered at least 30 points in four of its six games. The Falcons’ offense sputtered last week against the Titans, but a return home should bode well for Atlanta, which ranks fourth in the NFL with 27.6 points per game.
Ben: Buccaneers. Remember when we all thought Atlanta was one of the NFL’s elite? That was fun. (Oh, wait. They still might be. Ugh. The NFL in 2015, folks!)
Mike: Buccaneers. I’m still struggling to figure out how good Atlanta really is, but the next time the Falcons cover a spread of more than four points this season will be the first.
San Diego Chargers (2-5) at (-3) Baltimore Ravens (1-6), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Ravens. Baltimore’s soft secondary suggests Philip Rivers could have a big game. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they just faced a team allowing an NFL-worst 303.8 pass yards per game and still got the tar beat out of them.
Ben: Building off what Mike said above about Lions-Chiefs, I don’t understand how every team in the league is so atrocious versus the spread. San Diego’s 1-5 ATS in its last six overall and 3-6 ATS in its last nine on the road; Baltimore’s 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven overall and 0-5 ATS in its last five at home. If it sounds like I’m stalling so I don’t have to make a pick, it’s because that’s exactly what I’m doing. Chargers, I guess.
Mike: Chargers. The Ravens have given up the third-most yards per passing attempt this season, while the Chargers lead the league in passing yards. I think that at least allows San Diego to keep this close enough to cover the field goal.
(-1) Minnesota Vikings (4-2) at Chicago Bears (2-4), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Vikings. Last week’s bye should have the Bears nice and fresh for their fifth loss of the season.
Ben: Vikings. Good for Da Bears rallying and not giving up on their season, but I still think they might be the worst team in the NFL, top to bottom. I can’t bank on them for anything less than a touchdown spread.
Mike: Vikings. I love that we’re getting this line at one point because I don’t see how this line doesn’t shift more in favor of the Vikings, who should run on the Bears all day.
(-5) Arizona Cardinals (5-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-5), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Cardinals. Josh McCown is banged up and Johnny Football’s head is in the clouds. The Browns rank dead-last in rush yards allowed per game and second-to-last in sacks given up, suggesting they have plenty of problems on both offense and defense. Not a good formula for success.
Ben: Browns. Yes, the Browns got the orange knocked out of them by the Rams, but they’ve been sneakily effective against the odds lately, going 2-1-1 ATS in their last four games. Also, the Cards just struggled at home to get by an unsightly Baltimore team.
Mike: Browns. In their last four games as a home underdog of at least three points, the Browns have two outright wins and the two losses were by a combined four points.
Tennessee Titans (1-5) at Houston Texans (2-5), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Texans. T.J. Yates is back in Houston. Let’s party.
Ben: Texans. I don’t know why.
Mike: Texans. J.J. Watt has to win this team a game at some point, right?
New York Giants (4-3) at (-3) New Orleans Saints (3-4), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Saints. The Giants are first in the NFL in turnover differential (plus-9), which is kind of amazing. And the Saints won’t have the luxury of bullying around the Colts’ offensive line this week. But New Orleans is showing life on defense, while Drew Brees should do damage against a New York pass defense that ranks 30th in the league.
Ben: Giants. I took New Orleans in Indy last week because Drew Brees historically plays well in domes. So, of course, now the Saints are back home (in a dome) and I’m picking against them. The X-factor here is that the Giants aren’t the Colts.
Mike: Saints. I really don’t have a good reason for this pick other than Drew Brees has been better at home (four touchdowns, just one pick) and Mark Ingram’s playing really well. So there’s that.
(EV) Cincinnati Bengals (6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Bengals. According to CBSSports.com, the Bengals are 21-3-1 in 1 p.m. games since October 2013. Useless info? Probably. But it’s enough for me to close my eyes and pick the Bengals to stay unbeaten.
Ben: Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger has no limitations in practice this week, therefore there are no limitations on me picking against the Bengals on the road against a divisional foe.
Mike: Steelers. Pittsburgh should ride the emotional wave that will come with Roethlisberger’s return.
San Francisco 49ers (2-5) at (-9.5) St. Louis Rams (3-3), 1 p.m.
Ricky: 49ers. That’s a beefy spread for two teams that rank 31st and 32nd in the league in points per game this season.
Ben: Rams. Against the last three quality defenses they played, the Niners have lost by an average of 23.7 points. That is more than 9 1/2 points. I’ll take the Bighorns.
Mike: Rams. Colin Kaepernick has been sacked 25 times this season, second only to Russell Wilson for the most in the NFL. St. Louis is tied for second in sacks this season.
(-1) New York Jets (4-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-3), 4:05 p.m.
Ricky: Jets. Three weeks ago, the Raiders scored 10 points at home against the Broncos. An outcome like that is far more likely than another 37-point explosion. The Jets’ defense is for real.
Ben: Jets. When this line opened as a pick ’em, I complained, “Come on, Vegas! There’s no way to call this game without some sort of spread. Help a brother out and give somebody some points!” The oddsmakers accommodated by giving Oakland … one point. Thanks, Sin City.
Mike: Jets. Love this stat, courtesy of our friends at OddsShark: Oakland is 1-10 straight up and against the spread in its last 11 games after winning as an underdog, which they did last week.
(-6) Seattle Seahawks (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-4), 4:25 p.m.
Ricky: Seahawks. A co-worker, who’s a Cowboys fan, said Dallas’ offense improved with Matt Cassel at the helm. His logic: “The ball moved.” That tells you everything you need to know. In fact, it’ll probably move quite a bit in the other direction against a Seahawks defense that finally showed up and allowed three points last week in San Francisco.
Ben: Cowboys. These teams are 1-4-1 ATS combined in their last three games overall and 5-5 straight-up in their last 10 head-to-head. Suffice to say, there isn’t a good option here. I’ll close my eyes, hold my nose and take the home team with the points.
Mike: Seahawks. I’d honestly bite up to about 9 1/2 points here, and that’s solely because of Cassel, who stinks.
(-3) Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos, 8:30 p.m.
Ricky: Broncos. The Broncos have won 10 consecutive regular-season home games. And they’re getting points. Ultimately, I think the Packers are the better team. But that’s too good to pass up in an evenly matched game.
Ben: Packers. Denver’s defense is a menace, but Green Bay’s D doesn’t get enough credit and its O isn’t quarterbacked by Peyton Manning.
Mike: Packers. Crazy to think that these two teams could be locked up in a defensive struggle. If that is the case, I’ll take Aaron Rodgers, even if it is on the road.
MONDAY, NOV. 2
Indianapolis Colts (3-4) at (-7) Carolina Panthers (6-0), 8:30 p.m.
Ricky: Colts. The Panthers are that team I love by three points but hate by seven. It’s against my better judgment, but I’ll pull for a backdoor cover in Carolina.
Ben: Panthers. The oddsmakers finally wised up and took away more than a field goal from Carolina at home. Still, this isn’t the defense you want a quarterback with a bad wing and an atrocious offensive line facing.
Mike: Panthers. Just don’t see how the Colts — who are now also down first-round pick wideout Phillip Dorsett  — will move the ball in this game.
Thumbnail photo via James Lang/USA TODAY Sports Images
