If you’re a fan of analytics and support the New England Patriots, ESPN’s Football Power Index rating for Super Bowl LI will be to your liking.
The Patriots’ matchup with the Atlanta Falcons will be a matchup featuring the regular season’s highest scoring offense (Atlanta) versus the best scoring defense (New England). This kind of matchup has happened five times in the past, and the better defensive team won four of those games.
Experience might not be as much of a factor as some experts proclaim, but it does have some kind of impact, and the Patriots own an overwhelming advantage over the Falcons in this area.
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick are going to their seventh Super Bowl — the most for any quarterback or head coach. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and head coach Dan Quinn are going to the Super Bowl for the first time.
It’s likely to be a close game — the spread is the Patriots by three points — so a 55.6 percent edge for New England seems about right.
Thumbnail photo via Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports Images