NFL Odds: Best Division Title Bets In AFC, NFC At Quarter Mark of Season
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What a first quarter of the 2020 NFL season it was.
The first four weeks of the campaign had a little bit of everything, including big upsets, game-changing injuries, a postponed game and even a head coach firing. But one preseason sentiment still rings true: The majority of divisions across the league feature legitimate races.
The prices for division winners, of course, have changed since late summer, but you still can find some pretty good value on the board. Here are our favorite division championship bets in each conference. Both prices were determined by consensus data.
AFC: Pittsburgh Steelers, +230
The Steelers were our favorite division bet before the season started when they sat at +350 to win the AFC North. The value since has decreased amid Pittsburgh’s hot start to the campaign, but we feel Mike Tomlin’s bunch still presents the best value in the AFC.
It’s still early, but Ben Roethlisberger thus far looks like his old self. The veteran quarterback through three games has thrown for 777 yards with seven touchdown passes to only one interception. The Steelers also are averaging roughly 140 yards on the ground per game.
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The greatest deterrent to this bet, obviously, is the Ravens. Baltimore has looked pretty darn good through four games, and it arguably has the lightest regular-season schedule in the league. But Lamar Jackson and Co. might have been a bit exposed in their loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, and they certainly won’t surprise anyone at any point this season.
We expect the race for the AFC North crown to come down to the wire this season. If Pittsburgh can find a way to sweep its regular-season series with Baltimore, you potentially could reap the benefits of this bet.
NFC: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, +105
Our favorite division bet in the NFC before the start of the season was the Seahawks at +240 to win the West. We hope you took our advice. Seattle is unbeaten through four games and in turn has dropped to -155 to win its division.
So, we’ll pivot to the Buccaneers at the quarter mark of the campaign. We’ll be honest. The value in the NFC isn’t superb, and we have a tough time trusting the Philadelphia Eagles (+140) to claim the East. Considering how good the Bucs have looked over their last three games, take advantage of their plus money while it lasts.
Part of our confidence in this bet is due to a lack of faith in the New Orleans Saints. It sure feels like Father Time finally is starting to catch up to Drew Brees, who’s yet to really dazzle this season. The Saints have heavily relied on dual-threat back Alvin Kamara to power the offense, and we’re not sure if that will able to sustain.
Tampa Bay appears to be following the trajectory we so often saw from Patriots teams over the course of Tom Brady’s New England tenure. The Bucs looked out of sync in their season opener but seemingly have improved each week, even while dealing with nagging injuries to key players.
Another reason to put action on the Bucs to win the South: the toughest games remaining on their schedule will be played at Raymond James Stadium. The Green Bay Packers will visit in Week 6, while the Chiefs will make the trip down in Week 12.
Tampa won’t coast to the division crown, but we like its chances to come out on top.
